Covid-19 curve flattening in Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, but can't let our guard down: AIIMS Director

All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) Director and National Task Force member on Covid-19, Dr Randeep Guleria, said that the although Covid-19 curve is flattening in Delhi, Mumbai and Ahemdabad, we cannot let our guard down.

Speaking to News18, Dr Guleria discussed the spread of coronavirus pandemic in India, when the country may expect a flattening of the curve, India's low mortality rate and the effect of monsoons on Covid-19.

Dr. Guleria noted that different parts of India will peak at different times.

"Delhi is one such state where flattening of the curve is happening. It is happening in other areas of the country as well. Mumbai, Ahmedabad and certain parts of the South are showing a decline. They seem to have reached a plateau and are showing a downward trend," he told the publication.

He also pointed out that there are other areas where cases are increasing.

"We have seen this in Bihar, Assam and we need to have aggressive strategies there. But when cases do come down, we need to continue to be aggressive."

READ | India's COVID-19 curve remains flat: AIIMS director

Dr Guleria also said that in certain parts of India when the number of cases seemed to be decreasing, social distancing rules were flouted.

"It led to another spell of the virus."

Speaking on containment strategies, the AIIMS director said, "not only a lockdown but house-to-house surveillance is needed so that you can decrease the number of cases and contain the spread in that area. But identifying cases and isolating them along with a lockdown becomes very important."

Dr Guleria pointed out that India's mortality is lower than what has been calculated because a large number of people who were infected, recovered from it without any treatment. What needs to be taken care of, he added, are those people who don't know that they have been exposed to the virus and are spreading it in the community.

"The Delhi sero survey showed that 77 percent of the people are prone to infection and therefore we still need to be vigilant."

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Exploring the reasons for India's low mortality, Dr Guleria said that Indians might have a better immune system because of the BCG vaccine.

"The other theory is that possibly that milder forms of coronavirus, that has flu-like syndrome, has been circulating here in Asia and many people have had some exposure to the milder form of coronavirus and this leads to cross-protective immunity. And this gives us an immunity boost," he said.

On whether India will see a spike in coronavirus cases during the monsoon, the pulmonogist said that as it is a new virus, it is difficult to ascertain how it will behave.

"There is a concern that during monsoons there is humidity, the virus could be surviving for a longer period than hot summers.

The 1980 pandemic of influenza led to a second wave in the winter months and caused more mortalities then. We need to be cautious during winter months and not let our guard down."