Covid-19: Half of the positive cases, 60% deaths are in 50 districts, but pandemic spreads silently to the hinterland

Even though half of India’s Covid-19 cases and 60% deaths are concentrated in 50 districts, the epidemic has begun to spread silently to the hinterland, suggests a new analysis.

“Nearly 50.6% of cases and 59.6% of deaths come from 50 districts as the total number of cases crossed the 80 lakh mark,” said health economist Rijo M John, a consultant to the World Health Organisation and a visiting faculty to the Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode.

An analysis of such data at the previous two milestones of the epidemic’s progression reveals its silent spread over the last one and half months.

On September 27 when India reached the 60 lakh mark, the top 50 districts accounted for 63.6% deaths and 51.7% of cases. The figures changed to 61.5% and 51% respectively on October 10 when the number of Covid-19 cases crossed 70 lakh. The changes indicate the epidemic’s spread outside the top 50 districts that include Bangalore Urban and Bellary.

“The share of total cases and deaths accounted for by the top 50 districts has decreased now. It has been on a steady decline indicating a wider spread of the coronavirus. The strategy should now be to shift the testing more to other districts where the disease is beginning to spread,” John told DH.

While the Union Health Ministry’s data shows 35% of active Covid-19 cases are reported from only 18 districts, there are a fairly large number of districts, each harbouring a tiny percentage of total active cases that account for the bulk of India's active Covid-19 cases.

"Implementation of sound public health practices is needed to break the chain of transmission in districts that have started witnessing an increase in the caseload. When the cases are concentrated in a particular area, the transmission is likely to be high, so everyone is at risk. The aim should be to bring down that risk," commented Oommen John, a public health researcher at the George Institute for Global Health, Delhi.

“If there is a test positive, by tracing the immediate contacts, checking their status and keeping them safe will break the chain”

With 46,963 new cases, India’s Covid-19 tally inched closer to the 82 lakh mark, out of which 5.7 lakh are active cases. The death toll stands at 1,22,111 out of which 470 were added in the last 24 hours.