Another somersault: Nitish’s PM ambition at play again

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls showed that the Opposition, particularly Congress, might win some states in northern India, but Hindi heartland voters preferred Narendra Modi over Rahul Gandhi in the national elections.

The UP Assembly polls in March dashed any hope of Akhilesh Yadav emerging as the challenger to Modi in the Hindi-speaking belt in 2024.

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Of the rest of the Opposition leaders, Mamata Banerjee and K Chandrasekhar Rao’s popularity does not transcend their respective states’ boundaries. Arvind Kejriwal is still to prove himself outside of Delhi and Punjab.

According to those who know him well, Nitish Kumar’s decision to sever ties with the BJP is not only to prevent a repeat of Maharashtra with his party but has much to do with his ambition to play a prominent role on the national stage. It had contributed to Kumar severing ties with the BJP in 2013 and defeating it in the Bihar Assembly polls in 2015 by aligning with Lalu Prasad’s RJD.

Kumar rejoined the BJP-led NDA in 2017 when Congress frustrated his desire that the Opposition should project him as the Opposition’s coordinator for that year’s Presidential elections and subsequently for the 2019 LS polls.

Recognised as an experienced administrator with no allegations of corruption and a fluent Hindi speaker with acceptability across castes and religions, Kumar could be a better fit to lead the Opposition charge against Modi in the Hindi heartland, his supporters believe.

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“If you assess the personalities in the country, Nitish Kumar is eligible to become prime minister. We are not making any claim today, but he has all the qualities of a prime minister,” JD(U)’s national parliamentary board president Upendra Kushwaha said in Patna. RJD leader Sharad Yadav said Kumar could be a prime ministerial candidate for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

“If he sustains the momentum of what he managed to do now with his new movement, then 2024 general elections in Bihar, where 40 crucial seats will go to polls, will prove to be a real battleground for the BJP,” CPIML(L) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya said.

Shambhu Shrivastav, an old associate of the Bihar CM, believes much would depend on whether Congress agrees to project him as the Opposition’s leader. “Moreover, JD(U) would get at best 16 seats to contest from Bihar’s 40 as part of the grand alliance, and how many of those will the JD(U) win,” he asked.

Also, it remains to be seen whether Kumar’s frequent political flip-flops and ideological about-turns have dented his credibility. But it is certain that the BJP, with the resources at its disposal, will now target Kumar as it has seldom done before.

The happiest with this turn of events is the BJP’s Bihar unit, which wanted to end its alliance with JD(U) for some years but couldn’t convince the party’s central leadership.