Manipur's 'double engine' could resolve the Naga issue

The outcome of Manipur elections is likely to have implications that would be, perhaps, unprecedented.

Voters in Manipur have not only decided their legislators but also played a role in determining the future course of the Naga peace talks. Any solution to the vexed and long-pending Naga political issue could lead to a new era of peace and prosperity for the entire Northeast region, and more so for the state of Manipur.

The Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), or NSCN (IM), with its organisational presence among the Tangkhul Nagas tribe, has several pockets of influence in the hills of Manipur. NSCN (IM) general secretary Thuingelang Muivah is a Tangkhul and kept a close eye on the Manipur polls, particularly the results in the Naga areas of the state.

The Congress nominee from the Chingai seat, Sword Vashum, is the kin of a senior NSCN (IM) functionary. Of course, elections and alleged 'militant involvement' is always a mixed bag. The NSCN (IM) has openly favoured the Naga People's Front (NPF) in some constituencies, which won five seats. In some, even other parties or candidates.

Also Read: JD (U) offers support to BJP in Manipur

There are other complexities too. The Meitei population, mostly Hindus, who comprise a substantial electorate in the valleys, have reasons to be cautious about the Centre's future move. Incumbent Chief Minister N Biren Singh has the 'image' of a leader who struggled to present the 'Meitei perception' on the Naga issue to Union Home Minister Amit Shah in 2019, which has also helped the BJP.

Previously that role of taking up the Meitei cause regarding the Naga demand for 'greater Nagaland' and possible disintegration of Manipur state was with Congress veteran Okram Ibobi Singh. Ibobi Singh contested this time, but his party's lackadaisical poll management and campaign were not taken seriously by voters and ticket aspirants.

That Congress suffered immensely, and its tally has come down to single-digit, making it evident once again that the "double engine" concept of Prime Minister Narendra Modi works best in states such as Manipur. In the run-up to the two-phase polls in Manipur, several voters and political analysts have said that what perhaps matters most for the electorate in Manipur is who rules in Delhi.

The Congress vote share has plummeted, halving from 35.1 per cent in 2017 to 16.8 per cent in these elections, while its seats have come down from 28 to a mere five. The National People's Front (NPF) of Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma has emerged as the second-largest party in the Assembly, with seven seats and a 17.3 per cent vote share.

The BJP's vote share has remained consistent, increasing marginally from 36.3 per cent in 2017 to 37.8 per cent now. Its seats have increased from 21 in 2017 to 32 in a house of 60. It is to the credit of the BJP's poll management that the party has increased its vote share to this level from two per cent in 2012.

In this, the role of Meitei voters has been significant. For ages, the Meiteis have maintained social and cultural ties with the Hindu tradition and culture. The Meiteis comprise more than half of Manipur's population of nearly 29 lakh (2011 Census). The majority are Hindus, but the community has a small number of Muslims, too. Both are opposed to the 'disintegration' of the Manipur state.

Those in the know of things say the push for an early solution to the Naga problem was given in recent weeks by Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio. The BJP's comfortable win in Manipur, now that it does not need to depend on allies, like the Naga People's Front (NPF), should make it easier for its government to resist pressure from the Naga legislators.

BJP-RSS work

For decades, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)'s work in education and welfarism is also helping the BJP. But the BJP's electoral success in 2017 and 2022 and its governance have had less to do with Hindutva politics and more about its welfare schemes and delivery to people.

Also Read: Will Biren Singh get a second term as Manipur CM? BJP high command yet to decide

To cite one example, the School Fagathansi Mission is an initiative launched by the Biren Singh-led government to improve the education sector in the state, which covered 60 schools, and it increased enrollment in government schools by 25 per cent. While the government tried to improve education, health and roads, the RSS and 15 Sangh inspired organisations have been active, particularly in Imphal and Churachandpur, since the 1980s. Leaders like Jagdamba Mall spent more than three decades in the Nagaland-Manipur region.

In the health sector, under the CM's Health for All and Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY), 8.09 lakhs beneficiaries had been enrolled, and 1.1 lakh beneficiaries received free treatment worth Rs 123 crore rupees till October 2021.

Of course, there is an issue with the demand of the Meitei community for the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. The chief minister has said, "The state government has never sidelined the ST demand for Meiteis." The new government will need to deal with that.

Demand for Inner Line Permit

In December 2019, President Ram Nath Kovind gave his nod to the introduction of the Inner Line Permit (ILP) in Manipur. The Meitei community, and overwhelming women, had been very vocal, demanding the implementation of the ILP in the state. The Manipur Assembly, under N Biren Singh, also had, in 2018, passed a Manipur People's Protection Bill that defines Manipuris' and 'non-Manipuris' and seeks to control the flow of 'outsiders'.

Apart from that, the projects inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on January 4 in Imphal, the state capital, helped the sentiment in the BJP's favour. The projects included the landmark Steel Bridge built over the Barak River and fulfilled the long-awaited demand of the people. This will ensure seamless year-round connectivity between Imphal and Silchar in the Cachar district of Assam. The road link to Imphal is via Kohima in Nagaland, and commuters and truckers often face multiple challenges.

(Nirendra Dev is a Delhi-based journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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