India's Covid-19 toll may be six times higher: Report

Data extrapolation and cross-referencing with UN's global statistics was employed to arrive at the conclusion, said researchers

A recent study published in the Science journal suggested that India’s Covid-19 toll maybe six times higher than the reported figure — at an estimated 32 lakh — in comparison to the 4,83,000-odd deaths recorded since the start of the pandemic.

The researchers, citing that over 71 per cent of deaths took place during the second wave between April and June 2021, found that the infection is likely to have double the all-cause mortality rate.

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“India’s official cumulative Covid death count of 0.48 million implies a Covid death rate of approximately 345/ million population, about one-seventh of the US death rate. India’s reported Covid death totals are widely believed to be under-reports because of incomplete certification of Covid deaths and misattribution to chronic diseases and because most deaths occur in rural areas, often without medical attention,” the study states, according to a report by The Indian Express.

Researchers from India, Canada, and the US, took part in the study. The members included Dr Prabhat Jha, of the Centre for Global Health Research at the University of Toronto, and Dr Paul Novosad, of the department of economics at Dartmouth College.

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According to the report, the study employed a nationally representative telephonic survey of around 140,000 people, study of deaths reported across 200,000 public hospitals through the government’s Health Management Information System, and the deaths recorded in the Civil Registration System of 10 states.

The data was then cross-referenced with the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) estimates of deaths due to various causes.

“Excess deaths close to 3 million. 1. Far higher than official totals. 2. Implies global Covid death count off by >2 million (and more given undercounting elsewhere) Multiple data sources and different analytical approaches all agree: there were over 2 million Covid deaths in India thru summer 2021. India alone accounts for a huge share of global Covid deaths. WHO should be updating their global numbers taking this into account,” tweeted Dr Novosad.

“Before the pandemic reached India, I calculated the expected mortality based on the age-specific death rate from Europe; we have a younger population so I had adjusted for it. Based on my calculations, India was to report 2.2 million deaths as per the infection dynamics at the time. When the deaths were reported in just thousands, it was embarrassing,” Dr Jayprakash Muliyil, chairperson of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the National Institute of Epidemiology, was quoted as saying.

“All I am saying is, a toll of 3 million is reasonable.”

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