Tough battle for BJP in Tripura; allies confident in Meghalaya, Nagaland

The Assembly elections in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland on February 16 and February 27 may see BJP and its allies struggle to hold on to the gain they made in 2018, riding on the campaign focussing on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "special concern" for the Northeast.

The Congress, on the other hand, is likely to face the test of survival in the three states, which were once their stronghold.

In Tripura, the ruling BJP will not only face the Opposition CPI (M) and Congress pitted together but will also battle against the rising Tipra Motha, a forum of regional parties led by Pradyot Deb Barma in the tribal dominated constituencies. The saffron party also faces the possibility of Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT), its ally since 2018, joining hands with Tipra Motha for a "united fight" for Greater Tipraland state. Responding to a call for unity by Deb Barma, IPFT president Prem Kumar Reang on Wednesday stated that the party is ready to hold talks with Tipra Motha on the "issues of common interests" "Whether IPFT will stay in alliance with BJP or not, it will be decided soon," Reang said hinting that IPFT may go with Tipra Motha.

Read | Tripura to vote on February 16, Nagaland and Meghalaya on February 27

Deb Barma, Tripura's Royal scion and former state president of Congress, has made the demand for Greater Tipraland its main election issue. The party is planning to contest in 45 out of 60 Assembly seats. Tipra Motha defeated BJP and IPFT in March in the areas under Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC), having 20 Assembly seats. If Tipra Motha and IPFT join hands, BJP will have no pre-poll partner, unlike in 2018.

Trinamool Congress, on the other hand, is against forming an alliance with the CPI-M and Congress. The party is also against the demand for a separate Tipraland state.

Meghalaya:

Although BJP is a minor ally in the National People's Party (NPP) led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance government, the NPP led by CM Conrad Sangma has decided to contest the polls alone in all seats. The party has set a target of absolute majority in 2023 claiming that the development work done in the past five years was not done in 50 years. Trinamool Congress, which did not win a single seat in 2018, has become the challenge for the NPP. Led by former CM (during Congress) Mukul Sangma, TMC wants to wrest power in Meghalaya and form its first government outside Bengal. BJP, which is trying to increase its tally from two in 2018, has stated that no party would be able form the next government with the saffron party as a partner. Congress, meanwhile, is reportedly struggling to prepare its list of candidates for the Assembly polls.

Nagaland:

BJP has decided to give 40 seats to its ally Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and keep the remaining 20 for it. BJP in 2018 had won 12 seats. The two parties, although are confident of forming the government again, will face questions over the delay in signing the final agreement to end decades-old Naga conflict. There is a growing demand in Nagaland that the Centre should sign the final agreement before the elections. But sources in the government state that the final agreement is stuck in the rebel group, NSCN-IM's insistence on its demand for a separate flag and Constitution for the Nagas. The ruling alliance may also have a tough battle in eastern Nagaland (six districts), where an agitation for a separate state (Frontier Nagaland) is gaining momentum ahead of the polls. The Eastern Nagaland People's Front had even asked 20 MLAs from Eastern Nagaland to resign and press for the demand, instead of preparing for elections. Naga People's Front is the only strong opposition party as the Congress is still going slow in its preparation for the polls.

Polling in Tripura will be conducted on February 16, Meghalaya and Nagaland will go for polls on February 27. The counting will be done on March 2.