Rahul Gandhi's arrest: An Opposition no longer at odds?

Many in the Opposition were circumspect of the Congress' wherewithal to lead the fight against the BJP

A week is said to be a long time in politics. What can be said of a fortnight then! Mamata Banerjee, her nephew Abhishek Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav were breathing down the necks of Congress and Rahul Gandhi in public, while others, including some within the Congress, were doing it in private.

Many of them were circumspect of the Congress' wherewithal to lead the fight against the BJP. They did not have any particular affection for Rahul either. A weakened Congress was what politically suited and united them.

The BJP was happily watching the churn in the Opposition, as they felt Rahul was slowly squandering the goodwill he earned during the Bharat Jodo Yatra and this could draw the Congress into a Rahul versus Modi battle, rather than a battle focused on electoral issues.

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But a district court in Gujarat’s Surat dramatically changed that equilibrium. Rahul was convicted in a defamation case, subsequently disqualified from Lok Sabha. He now faces a ban on contesting elections for eight years, if the higher courts do not overturn the conviction or at least reduce the sentence.

Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bharat Rashtra Samithi and AAP, among others, were not enthusiastic about the Congress, particularly Rahul. But Rahul the leader — a contentious one for some — has suddenly become a ‘cause’, a ‘victim’ and a ‘rallying point’ for the entire Opposition. The contours of the Rahul versus Modi battle have changed. It is unlikely to remain a personality contest, much to the disappointment of Rahul’s rivals.

While the Opposition dreaded it, the BJP had always loved the prospect of a Rahul-Modi duel. They probably perceived it as an easy shot. For them, he was a ‘shehzada’, a ‘pappu’ who presided over a corrupt system and benefited from it. Modi always managed to portray it as a fight between him, a man from a humble background, a ‘sewak’ or people’s servant and Rahul.

The campaign to tarnish his image, Rahul says, had hundreds of crores of rupees pumped into it. But it worked not just because of Modi’s rhetoric or BJP-RSS tactics. Part of the reason the BJP design worked could be attributed to members of his own party who did not wholeheartedly rally behind him. Some of them were in awe of Modi too! Modi won those two rounds in 2014 and 2019.

Also Read: Rahul not only politician to lose membership after conviction, should appeal in higher court: Amit Shah

But Bharat Jodo Yatra and his constant attack on the Adani Group that culminated in a 50-minute speech in the Lok Sabha became a game-changer for Rahul, as he redefined his image.

Changed sentiments

Opposition leaders started talking about a “focused” Rahul, but soon there were “distractions”. While the Adani affair was gaining momentum, the BJP started a campaign on his “democracy in danger” remarks in London, but Rahul denied calling for any foreign intervention. Parliament was disrupted by the ruling party seeking Rahul’s apology.

The Opposition, though divided, with Trinamool Congress not joining the larger group, continued its fight against Adani. Parties were still not convinced about Rahul, who had returned to the country to attend Parliament after a two-week stay in the United Kingdom.

Mamata felt that the subsequent Rahul-BJP war of words was designed by the BJP. Four days before his conviction, she told her colleagues that Modi and BJP wanted Rahul as the foremost leader in the Opposition as it would make the Prime Minister look good. If Rahul remains that leader, nobody would ever be able to defeat Modi because Rahul is his biggest TRP, she had said.

It might have been the anger of losing a bypoll to the Left-Congress combine that made her say what she said, but those sentiments were shared by some Opposition leaders, who felt the BJP was singling out Rahul to make him a hero. BJP had been attacking him with new vigour since early March, though the Congress did not digress from the Adani affair while defending Rahul.

How the situation changed could be gauged from how the Trinamool Congress reacted to the developments. On the day of his conviction, a senior Trinamool leader said, “We are responding with radio silence.” This was when the entire Opposition had gathered around Rahul.

The next day was different as the Lok Sabha Secretariat issued a notification on Rahul’s disqualification, which the Opposition says came at lightning speed. Mamata was the first to issue a statement. Her party, which had kept themselves away from Opposition meetings in Parliament, now went for one in Kharge’s office, marched with other parties, addressed a press conference and attended a dinner meeting.

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“The BJP considers Rahul an easy target and they believe a Rahul versus Modi battle is beneficial for them. They appear to depend on the ratings of both leaders. Modi has around 50% or more ratings but Rahul is nowhere near. They are continuously attacking Rahul to keep the Congress below the mark,” political commentator Rasheed Kidwai told DH. However, the paradox is that all those who like Modi do not vote for the BJP and all those who vote for Congress do not endorse Rahul, he adds.

Kidwai believes that the disqualification of Rahul may backfire on BJP’s strategy to continue with its Rahul-Modi narrative. He says the BJP wanted to keep this battle on a legal plank, but Congress has made it political.

“The strategies of both parties show clearly where the wind is blowing. BJP knows that Indian voters cast their votes on sentiments and not on logic always. Rahul will benefit from the victim card. The Opposition is sensing a chance and everybody gets to benefit,” he says.

Toned down rhetoric

Rahul, Congress and the other Opposition parties are cautious in their approach. One could clearly see that the Congress has put itself on silent mode on the leadership question. Meanwhile, Rahul is making the right movesand parties like Trinamool Congress have come around. A senior Trinamool leader said, “Let us take one step at a time. There has been a lot of graciousness in the past 10 days. Nobody wants to spoil it with talks on leadership.”

While a section of the Opposition is still wary of the Rahul versus Modi narrative, the top Congress leader is making sure that his moves do not ruffle feathers among his allies. He was willing to “tone down” his rhetoric on V D Savarkar for “friends” in the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, while not diluting his ideology. He was ready to listen to Sena’s Sanjay Raut telling him that their fight is about Modi and not Savarkar.

But when Opposition leaders, who gathered at the dinner table of Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge to discuss future strategy, spoke against increasing attacks by the Modi government, Rahul told them, “This is what I have been saying for the past nine years.” He might have loved to say that he did not get support from many of them, but he would not.

At present, Congress appears to be batting well on a slippery political pitch. Rahul thanked all Opposition leaders. Kharge leaves no opportunity to thank the entire Opposition for their solidarity. It is keeping the BJP nervous and confused, leaving them asking why the Congress is not going to court. They allege Congress wants to keep Rahul in jail.

The Opposition may still fight against each other in states but now, there is an agreement to not delegitimise each other. For now, the Congress has the leash firmly in its hands, but the question still remains — who will have the last laugh? Would this be enough for the Opposition?