AMMK, caste reservation to trouble AIADMK in 'stronghold' Tamil Nadu?

Caste equations, especially consolidation of dominant Mukulathors behind the party, had propelled the AIADMK's electoral engine in Southern Tamil Nadu in the past.

The Lok Sabha elections and by-polls to a few assembly constituencies in 2019 saw a chunk of the traditional AIADMK votes, especially from Mukulathors, falling into the kitty of its splinter group, AMMK, headed by V K Sasikala's nephew T T V Dhinakaran.

Dhinakaran's AMMK has now aligned with actor Vijayakanth-headed DMDK, which has influence in pockets, and the alliance might derail the prospects of the AIADMK and BJP candidates in many constituencies in 10 southern districts that account for 58 assembly seats, helping the DMK-Congress combine.

Dhinakaran and the AIADMK

It is not just the Dhinakaran factor, side-lining of Sasikala by the AIADMK, government's decision to provide 10.5 per cent reservation to Vanniyars, a dominant caste in the Northern region, within the 20 per cent MBC quota, and Centre's move to club seven sub-sects, including Pallars, of SC to group under Devendrakula Vellalars might play the spoilsport for the ruling combine.

The DMK is also leaving no stone unturned to keep intact gains it made in the 2019 elections, and believes its support for local issues like anti-Sterlite agitation in Thoothukudi might come handy. Traditional votes of the Congress, Left parties, and MDMK will be an added advantage to the alliance which has made “anti-incumbency” and BJP the main issues in this April 6 election.

While the AIADMK believes the Centre's announcement of bringing seven sub-sects part of Scheduled Castes under Devendrakula Vellalars will help immensely, the potential counter-consolidation of “dominant castes”, including Mukulathors, Pillai, and Saiva Velalars, could emerge as a problem, political observers say.

Despite all odds, the ruling party is putting up a spirited fight in Madurai, Theni, and elsewhere – especially where the party strongmen R B Uthayakumar, Sellur K Raju, and Rajan Chellappa are contesting. In Bodinayakanur, deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam is being challenged by his former party colleague and Jayalalithaa's blue-eyed boy Thanga Tamilselvan, now with the DMK.

AMMK had scored more than 1 lakh votes in five Lok Sabha constituencies in southern TN, which have a high concentration of Mukulathors, the caste to which Sasikala belongs. The party also spoiled the chances of AIADMK in the 2019 by-polls – the votes polled by AMMK in four assembly constituencies in the region were higher than the margin of the winning candidates – all DMK, which implies that the split led to the defeat of the ruling party.

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Piramalai Kallars, a sub-sect of Mukulathor, is upset with the AIADMK on the 10.5 per cent quota to Vanniyars as they feel such a move would eat into the benefits that they have been enjoying under the MBC quota. Piramalai Kallar votes decide the winner in at least eight constituencies, including Bodinayakanur from where Panneerselvam is contesting, and they are spread across the region.

“Despite their internal differences, the Mukulathors had always put their weight behind AIADMK since the days of MGR, helping it win elections. Side-lining of Sasikala and AMMK contesting as a separate entity will pose serious challenges for the AIADMK,” political analyst P Ramajayam told DH.

Issues, arithmetic, and DMK alliance

In backward districts like Sivaganga and Ramanathapuram, unemployment and lack of adequate water for drinking and irrigation needs take the front seat. The anti-incumbency against the 10-year-old AIADMK government is visible on the ground in many rural areas with people saying they want a “regime change.”

Minorities, especially in districts like Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, and Kanyakumari are likely to consolidate behind the DMK-Congress alliance, though the AMMK is working hard to get the support of Muslims. Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) is likely to receive the support of youngsters in urban areas, while Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) might get the backing of the same age group in the hinterland.

Even if one goes by the 2016 results and sheer arithmetic, things do not look very good for the ruling AIADMK alliance. In 2016 elections, the AIADMK and DMK were involved in a neck and neck fight in the region. despite a high-voltage campaign by J Jayalalithaa – AIADMK won 32 assembly seats and the DMK- Congress came a close second by bagging 26 seats.

The winning margin of four AIADMK candidates in southern TN is less than 500 votes in 2016 – this time, the DMK alliance has Left parties and MDMK, which have influence in pockets in the region, making it a very formidable combine.

That things are not “too good” for the party became clear when deputy chief minister O Panneerselvam and a couple of ministers from the region began “clarifying” that they never spoke ill towards Sasikala vis-a-vis Jayalalithaa's death in the past week.

“These statements are aimed at placating the Mukulathors who seem divided on their support to AIADMK. And they realise that AMMK is still a formidable force in the region, and the reach out is a last-ditch attempt to keep the Mukulathor vote base intact,” another political analyst told DH. Sasikala is a Mukulathor and her closeness with Jayalalithaa brought the community further close to AIADMK.

Piramalai Kallars and their disappointment with AIADMK

Piramalai Kallars feel their educational and job opportunities will be affected due to the government's decision to divide the MBC reservation into three categories. Sensing the mood, AIADMK ministers came out in the open to say that the 10.5 per cent quota for Vanniyars is “temporary in nature” and will be modified after the government receives data from a caste-based census.

“Our share is now just 7.5 per cent in the 20 per cent MBC quota. We are already a backward community, and why take away opportunities from us and give it to others? The AIADMK which had our unflinching support for years has deceived us, and this will reflect in the voting pattern,” Muthukumar, an autorickshaw driver in Theni told DH.

In Thoothukudi, the police firing on anti-Sterlite protesters, and the custodial deaths of a father-son duo are still afresh in the minds of the people, while unemployment is the biggest issue in Sivaganga district.

“People are jobless wherever you go. The unemployment ratio has increased after the Covid-19 lockdown. Most of our youth are home without any jobs. The next government should focus on jobs, rather than giving everything free to everyone,” Arun, who works in an industrial unit in Manamadurai, said.