Kerala's 11,755 new Covid-19 cases on October 10 higher than daily count of Maharashtra, Karnataka

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had said October-November months were crucial

A day after Kerala for the first time overtook Maharashtra in the number of fresh Covid-19 cases, Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan cited the instance of the Malabar state to appeal to people to avoid social and religious gathering in the upcoming festive season in order to minimise the spread of the virus.

On Saturday there were 11,755 new Covid-19 cases in Kerala followed by 11,416 in Maharashtra. This is probably the only time in the last few months when the southern state was ahead of the western province that remained the epidemic’s epicentre from the very beginning.

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However, it's too early to say if a single day overshoot is an indication of a bigger worry. Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan stated that the present trend was an indication that the Covid-19 cases would continue to surge in the coming weeks.

On Sunday Kerala reported 9,347 new cases as against Maharashtra’s 10,792.

Relaxations in gatherings from the time of Onam, poor enforcement of social distancing, low number of tests and ineffective utilisation of the private health sector are some of the reasons cited by experts as contributing factors behind the sudden surge in Kerala.

Restrictions were literally thrown to the winds in Kerala during the Onam season last month. Most major shops and commercial streets were live. In addition, there was an increasing number of participants for events like marriages and relaxations were given to travel to Kerala from other states. Public transport also resumed and there was an increase in political strikes that led to the congregation of people in close proximity.

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The government should have imposed the controls to the maximum extent possible to avert the surge and people should have been be properly educated on how to remain safe by keeping off from gatherings, said V Ramankutty, public health expert and consultant to Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram.

With the health ministry officials worrying about the Durga Puja-Dussehra-Eid-Diwali-Chhath season for the next one month in the wake of the Onam experience, Vardhan warned people to stay away from large congregations and celebrate the upcoming festivals at home, with their loved ones, instead of going out to fairs and pandals.

"The whole world looked at us and asked us the method to flatten the graph", Health Minister K K Shailaja said. After May 4, things changed as the lockdown was easedand people started returning to the state from abroad, mainly Gulf, and other states.

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“There is no need to congregate in large numbers to prove your faith or your religion. If we do this, we may be heading for big trouble. Our goal is to finish this virus and save humanity. This is our religion and the religion of the whole world,” the minister said in his weekly social media interaction with the people.

The second and third cases were also Wuhan returnees, but it effectively checked any large scale spread then while the three also recovered. From January-March, the state had 499 cases, out of which 33 per cent was through local transmission and there were three deaths.

Case fatality rate at that time was 0.5 per cent. When the lockdown was declared on March 24, the government got some time to improve its health system andup to May 3 there were no other cases.

Though thousands of persons were booked for flouting social distancing norms in Kerala, it was just the tip of the iceberg as violation of social distancing was visible in every nook and cranny – from transport buses to shops.

The rise in the number of cases in Kerala has come to the notice of the Karnataka government too. Health Commissioner Pankaj Kumar Pandey said while there were no immediate plans by Karnataka to reintroduce interstate travel restrictions with Kerala, the government was assessing the situation. "We may take a call on that soon," Pandey said.

Follow: State-wise total number of confirmed cases, deaths

The Karnataka State Road Transport Corporation, which used to run 150 buses everyday to various destinations in the neighbouring state, is now running five to six services. "The number of buses, including private buses, from Kerala has also remained low, at about 5% of the regular operations," a senior official said.

On Sunday, India’s Covid-19 tally stands at 70.53 lakhs with 8.67 lakh active cases, out of which 74,383 were reported in the past 24 hours. The death toll stands at 1,08,334.

Dr Amar Fettle, state Nodal officer for Covid-19, said though there was a steady increase in cases, the recoveries were also happening. The people were lowering their guard and this will lead to increase in absolute cases. The state was facing a dangerous situation, he said.

As part of measures to curb overcrowding, the Kerala government has also clamped prohibitory orders till the end of this month in various districts as per which not more than five people can assemble at a place at a time.

(With inputs from PTI)