Why Kerala is witnessing another surge in Covid-19 cases

The lowest sero prevalence, targeted testing of symptomatic people, and unscientific relaxations of lockdown are considered to be the key reasons behind Kerala battling the pandemic while other states are seeing lower Covid-19 numbers. However, these are also seen in a positive light by some experts.

With 22,064 more fresh cases with a total positivity rate (TPR) of 13.53 per cent reported on Thursday, the number of active cases in the state stands at 1.54 lakh, forming 37 per cent of the active cases in the country.

A total of 4.54 lakh people are in isolation in the state now, of which 4.26 are under home or institutional quarantine. As many as 27,480 are in hospitals. While 1,936 are in ICUs, 704 are on ventilator support.

Also read: Kerala logs 22,064 new Covid-19 cases, 128 deaths

There were comparatively more tests done during the last three days, which reached 1.96 lakh on Wednesday. But the TPR continues to fluctuate between 10-13.6 per cent.

The Centre deputed a six-member team led by National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) Director Sujeet Kumar Singh to Kerala to review the situation.

Indian Council of Medical Research’s recent seroprevalence analysis found that Kerala had the lowest seroprevalence of 44 per cent. The lack of antibodies among the majority of the state’s population is cited as the reason behind people still getting infected.

Moreover, the state has been practicing a targeted testing strategy, aiming for optimum use of test kits. Only the symptomatic are being tested and as a result, the state’s TPR is high.

Also read: Kerala to impose full Covid-19 lockdown on July 31, August 1 as cases rise

Experts are finding both positive and negative sides to the low seroprevalence of 44 per cent. If lockdown norms were not followed strictly, the seroprevalence in Kerala could have been higher, and the current figures would have come down. However, such a strategy could have resulted in a high number of Covid deaths, say experts.

Many states that saw a surge in Covid are now witnessing very few fresh cases. They also had higher seroprevalence. However, such states also saw more deaths than Kerala.

Also read: BJP, CPI(M) spar as Covid-19 cases remain high in Kerala

Dr T S Anish, the Kerala government’s Covid expert committee member, told DH that the low seroprevalence in Kerala proves that the state managed to curb the spread of the infection. This helped in keeping the death rate low and the health infrastructure was not burdened. Kerala did not see Covid patients struggling for hospital beds or oxygen. Achieving herd immunity through vaccination is the state’s approach in curbing Covid, he said.

However, some experts do not agree with the state’s strategy. Public health expert Dr V Ramankutty said there was a lack of clarity in the lockdown measures in Kerala. Despite criticism, the government is yet to give a convincing explanation on the need for the weekend lockdown, he said. Meanwhile, traders are seeking the lifting of curbs as the Onam festival is approaching.

Also read: Kerala's Covid-19 situation explained: Low sero-survey rates, high daily numbers

So far 37 per cent of Kerala’s population has been vaccinated. Experts recommend enhancing vaccination coverage and strict enforcement of social distancing norms, even amid the relaxed norms. The comparatively low Covid death rate of 0.49 per cent is the lone reason for Kerala to smile.