Will AIADMK retain its Kongu bastion this Tamil Nadu election?

Kongu Nadu, also known as western region, has been a traditional bastion of the ruling AIADMK, often fuelling the party's engine to Fort St. George, the seat of power of the Tamil Nadu government.

It is the overwhelming victory in the western region in 2016 – the party won 42 of the 50 assembly constituencies spread across seven districts– that helped J Jayalalithaa script history by retaining power, a feat that was last achieved by none other than her mentor and late matinee idol M G Ramachandran.

When compared to other regions of the state, the AIADMK has no enemy within to deal with in the western region – rebel T T V Dhinakaran's influence is almost nil there – and the party machinery is solidly behind Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, who hails from this region.

Read: AMMK, caste reservation to trouble AIADMK in 'stronghold' Tamil Nadu?

Besides counting on the votes from Gounders, the caste to which Palaniswami belongs, the AIADMK is also banking on the “good image” of Jayalalithaa, welfare measures of the government, and the Chief Minister's “son of the soil” plank to retain its base in the western region.

How crucial is Western region?

Despite being a traditional stronghold, the AIADMK could not win any seats in the western region – DMK and its alliance partners won all eight Lok Sabha constituencies – in the 2019 elections. This was remarkable when compared to the DMK's combined performance in 2016 assembly polls when it had won just eight seats.

Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) chief and actor Kamal Haasan choosing to contest from Coimbatore (South) in the region has further raised the electoral stakes. The three-year-old party believes its president contesting from Kongu Nadu would give impetus to its party candidates among the urban youth. It was in Coimbatore Lok Sabha seat that MNM nominee R Mahendran polled over 1.45 lakh votes, which was a record-of-sorts for a party that hardly had any base.

DMK is not taking things lightly this time around as it is leaving no stone unturned to break into the AIADMK's long-held bastion in the April 6 elections.

Read: Tamil Nadu CM Edappadi K Palaniswami 'trapped' as he's 'corrupt', alleges Rahul Gandhi

Not just frequent visits by DMK chief M K Stalin, party leader Kanimozhi, and other seniors have also been visiting the region. The party has now dispatched senior leader A Raja to oversee the campaign in the region, where the party structure is weak due to lack of credible local leadership. Besides banking on the “anti-incumbency”, the DMK has gone for targeted campaigning in the region by highlighting the alleged corruption under Palaniswami regime, and explaining to the people on “how important their votes” are to “reclaim” the state's “lost glory.”

On the flip side, the AIADMK is harping on to the DMK's 2006-2011 regime marked by frequent power cuts and “high-handedness” by its leaders in the region that is known for several flourishing businesses.

What are the advantages for AIADMK?

The AIADMK has inherent advantage in the region – Gounders and other castes have always put their weight behind the party, having a man of their own as Chief Minister, and kick-starting long-pending projects such as Athikadavu-Avinashi project that aims at providing water for drinking and irrigation needs in the Kongu region.

Notwithstanding the advantages, the contest in western region is neck and neck between the AIADMK and DMK with the ruling party breathing easy only in a few constituencies like Edappadi, where Palaniswami himself is contesting, Komarapalayam, and Gobichettipalayam from where Ministers P Thangamani, and K A Sengotaiyyan are contesting.

Municipal Administration Minister S P Velumani, the Coimbatore strongman and one of the closest confidantes of Palaniswami, has been confined to his constituency – Thondamuthur on the outskirts of Coimbatore – with the DMK fielding a formidable candidate in jallikattu fame Kartikeya Sivasenapathy.

Prof Ramu Manivannan, Head of the Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras, feels the DMK will certainly make inroads into the western region this election. “The DMK will more than improve its tally in the Kongu region. Western Tamil Nadu is not just Coimbatore and Salem. It is a huge region, and besides the anti-incumbency, the overall impression of the BJP will serve as a setback to the alliance led by the AIADMK,” he told DH.

Issues that could decide elections

There are also issues that could upstage the advantages – losses incurred by Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) during demonetisation, GST, and Covid-19 lockdown, “lack of support” from government to industries and people dependent on MSMEs during the lockdown, and the “fatigue” for the 10-year-old dispensation, etc..

Like every other region, rising prices of fuel and LPG cylinders are major issues that could work against the AIADMK-BJP. Election watchers say the Gounders are upset with the Centre's move to group seven sub-sects part of Scheduled Castes (SC) under Devendrakula Vellalars, though it is not visible on the ground, at least for now.

Besides the contests in Coimbatore (South), where Kamal Haasan is taking on Congress and BJP candidates, and Thondamuthur, another interesting battle to watch out for is between Transport Minister M R Vijayabhaskar, and his former colleague V Senthil Balaji, who is now the DMK candidate.

Will BJP gain in the western region?

BJP is also betting big on the region – it has fielded its state chief L Murugan, who belongs to Arunthathiyar, a community that is numerically strong in the region, and is putting up a spirited fight in constituencies like Coimbatore South (Vanathi Srinivasan), and Aravakurichi (former IPS officer K Annamalai) – the last two are Gounders.

And understandably, pictures of party leaders – Narendra Modi and Amit Shah – are largely missing in the posters and pamphlets of BJP candidates, who seem to project themselves as nominees who have the “blessings” of Amma (Jayalalithaa). In all the five constituencies where the BJP has fielded candidates, the party is heavily dependent on the AIADMK as it lacks proper grass root structure there.