Tax mop-up likely to fall short of revised estimate: Official

The government may not achieve a revised tax collection target of Rs 30.43 lakh crore for the current financial year, a top official said.

Revised estimate was raised steeply by over 10 per cent from the budget estimate in the FY24 Budget presented last month, the official said.

The revised estimates (RE) for the current fiscal pegged gross tax revenues at Rs 30.43 lakh crore, higher than the budget estimates of Rs 27.57 lakh crore.

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On the direct tax side, the official said, "The RE was quite steep. we are expecting a shortfall. The net collections could be between Rs 15-15.5 lakh crore."

In the current fiscal (2022-23), the revenues from direct tax (which includes income and corporate taxes) are projected to grow by over 17 per cent at Rs 16.50 lakh crore compared to 2021-22 fiscal when the collection was Rs 14.20 lakh crore.

In the current fiscal, the revenue from corporate tax is expected to come in at Rs 8.35 lakh crore. This is projected to rise by 10.4 per cent to over Rs 9.22 lakh crore in the next fiscal.

Personal income tax collections this fiscal are estimated at Rs 8.15 lakh crore and are projected to rise by 10.4 per cent to over Rs 9 lakh crore next year.

Collections from customs duty are expected to rise by 11 per cent to Rs 2.33 lakh crore, from Rs 2.10 lakh crore in the revised estimates.

In indirect tax side, another official said, "we are expecting shortfall on the customs side."

There was reduction in the mop-up from customs in the latest Budget as target was reduced to Rs 2.10 lakh crore from Rs 2.13 lakh crore estimated earlier for the financial year ending March 2023.

GST collections are projected to grow by 12 per cent in the next fiscal to Rs 9.56 lakh crore. In the current fiscal, the revised estimates pegged GST collection at Rs 8.54 lakh crore.

A third official said GST revenues too look quite high with asking rate for Central GST and compensation cess combined at Rs 86,000 crore in March. Revenue from CGST and cess combined usually comes around Rs 60,000-63,000 crore every month

Taking both direct and indirect taxes, the gross tax collection is expected to grow by 10.45 per cent to Rs 33.61 lakh crore in 2023-24. In the current fiscal, the revised estimate pegs gross tax revenue at Rs 30.43 lakh crore.

Net direct tax collection so far this fiscal grew 17 per cent to reach Rs 13.73 lakh crore, which is 83 per cent of the revised target for the full financial year, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) said last week.

The growth in direct tax mop-up, which comprises personal income tax and corporate taxes, was driven by PIT collections.

On a gross basis, the collection grew 22.58 per cent to Rs 16.68 lakh crore. Refunds amounting to Rs 2.95 lakh crore have been issued during April 1, 2022 to March 10, 2023, which are 59.44 per cent higher than refunds issued during the same period in the preceding year.

Direct tax collection, net of refunds, stands at Rs 13.73 lakh crore which is 16.78 per cent higher than the net collections for the corresponding period of last year.