Uncertainty over Modi's visit to Johannesburg and his meeting with Xi for an India-China thaw before G20 summit

An India-China thaw before President Xi Jinping’s visit to New Delhi for the G20 summit next month now looks unlikely as uncertainty looms large over a much-speculated bilateral meeting between him and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Johannesburg in South Africa between August 22 and 24 next.

Modi and Xi were expected to travel to Johannesburg to take part in the BRICS summit, which would be hosted by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. New Delhi and Beijing have been exploring the possibility of a bilateral meeting between the two leaders on the sideline of the conclave – leading to a thaw in the relations, which hit a new low over the past three years since the military stand-off between the two nations started in eastern Ladakh in April-May 2020.

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But New Delhi is now rethinking if the Prime Minister, himself, should travel to Johannesburg for the BRICS summit or he should take part in it virtually, just as Russian President Vladimir Putin would do. The rethinking by New Delhi has also cast a shadow of uncertainty over Modi’s meeting with Xi on the sideline of the summit, sources told DH on Wednesday.

If New Delhi finally decides against the prime minister’s visit to Johannesburg, he may take part in the BRICS summit virtually. Besides, Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar or External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar may also lead the official delegation of India to the South African city, said the sources.

The BRICS now comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. With the geopolitical tension triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating tension between the former Soviet Union nation and the western nations, Moscow over the past few months supported Beijing’s push for admitting new members and expanding the BRICS, apparently to turn it into a counterweight to the G7 and a challenger to the United States and the European Union, particularly on global economic issues. New Delhi has been resisting the bid, stressing that the bloc should first frame rules for expansion of the bloc.

India is reluctant to move fast on the expansion of the BRICS as such a move could further complicate its strategic balancing between its decades-old strategic partnership with Russia and its expanding ties with the United States and the rest of the West.

Brazil is also apprehensive about China’s plan to make the BRICS overtly adversarial to the West.

The forthcoming meeting of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg may see the bloc starting discussion on draft criteria for admission of new members.

The BRICS summit in Johannesburg will take place just about a couple of weeks before the leaders of the G20 nations will arrive in New Delhi for their 18th annual conclave. Xi is among the leaders New Delhi is expecting at the G20 summit, which Modi will host on September 9 and 10. To avert the awkward spectacle of the Prime Minister hosting the Chinese President amid the continuing military stand-off along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – the de facto India-China boundary – in eastern Ladakh, New Delhi was keen on a meeting between the two leaders in Johannesburg and of late had back-to-back high-level contacts with Beijing.

Xi is among the leaders New Delhi is expecting at the G20 summit, which Modi will host on September 9 and 10. To avert the awkward spectacle of the Prime Minister hosting the Chinese President amid the continuing military stand-off along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – the de facto India-China boundary – in eastern Ladakh, New Delhi was keen on a meeting between the two leaders in Johannesburg and of late had back-to-back high-level contacts with Beijing.

Jaishankar had a meeting with Wang Yi, the director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission, on the sideline of an East Asia Summit conclave in Jakarta on July 14. The two sides followed it up with a meeting between Wang and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on the sideline of a BRICS meeting in Johannesburg on July 24.

Wang was a day later reappointed as the foreign minister of China, with Qin Gang, who had succeeded him on December 30, being removed.

Modi and Xi had met at a seaside resort at Mamallapuram in Tamil Nadu in October 2019 for an “informal summit” – a sequel to the first such engagement that had been held at Wuhan in central China in April 2018. They had held a bilateral meeting on the sideline of the BRICS summit in Brasilia in November 2019. The two leaders, however, had held no such formal bilateral engagement in 2020 and 2021, as the military stand-off along the LAC, particularly the clash at Galwan Valley on June 15, 2020, had brought the relations between the two nations to a new low.

They had also attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s summit at Samarkand in Uzbekistan on September 15 and 16 last year. But neither had they held any bilateral meeting on the sideline of the conclave. They, however, had exchanged courtesies on the sideline of the G20 summit at Bali in Indonesia on November 15 last year and, as recently revealed by Beijing first and then by New Delhi, had also spoken of the need to stabilise the India-China bilateral relations.

Though protracted negotiations led to the mutual withdrawal of troops by both the Indian Army and the Chinese PLA from some of the face-off points along the LAC, like Galwan Valley, the northern and southern banks of Pangong Tso, Gogra Post and Hot Springs, the stand-off could not be resolved completely so far.

The PLA troops deployed in Depsang, well inside the territory of India along the LAC with China, are still continuing to block the Indian Army’s access to Patrolling Points 10, 11, 12, 12A and 13. A face-off is also continuing in Demchok. Beijing has of late been claiming that the mutual withdrawal of troops by the Chinese PLA and the Indian Army from Patrolling Point 15 (Gogra-Hotsprings area) in September 2022 marked the restoration of normalcy along the LAC in eastern Ladakh. China’s claim appears to be an attempt to subtly build up pressure on India to accept the “new normal” in Depsang and Demchok areas.