AAP-Congress rivalry upsetting Opposition unity plans

The June 23 Patna meeting of opposition parties brought to the spotlight the schisms that might prevent a strong and united anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) combine in the 2024 general elections. What stood out was the differences between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress. While opposition parties are uniting to fight the BJP and ‘save’ India’s democracy, it is interesting that democratic principles are not necessarily upheld in many of these political parties.

Almost a decade ago, after AAP emerged as a political party with a future and Arvind Kejriwal as a leader for the long run, he was often referred as ‘chota Modi’ or a scaled down replica of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Just as the ‘original’ who systematically decimated his party’s second rung of leadership and showed scant respect for democratic practices anywhere, despite paying lip service to it, Kejriwal too permitted little debate and discussion within AAP, and decisions were allegedly taken with an iron fist.

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Kejriwal, who is Chief Minister of Delhi, is not the only Indian political leader to display authoritarian traits. Shortly after she ousted the Left Front from the Writer’s Building in Kolkata, the Mamata Banerjee-led government in West Bengal arrested a university professor for the ‘crime’ of forwarding cartoons allegedly disparaging Banerjee. More ‘evidence’ of Banerjee’s dislike for democracy and freedom of expression can be cited, along with instances of other political leaders exhibiting similar traits.

A dislike for democracy is evident in the Congress as well. In the recent decades the party’s president, except between 1991 and 1998, has been a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family. In 2019, after Rahul Gandhi vacated the post, the grand old party did not have an active president for a few years, till elections were held last year. The Congress now has a non-Gandhi as president, though Rahul Gandhi remains a crucial power pivot.

The Patna meet was not convened out of the blue, but emerged from a process set in motion after the Hindenburg report’s publication in January and when the ‘raid Raj’ became glaringly evident.

The coming together of 14 parties to file a petition in Supreme Court against misuse of investigative agencies was the first effort at forging common cause between disparate opposition parties. When even Kejriwal, along with several opposition leaders, criticised Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification from Lok Sabha, it signalled that AAP and the Congress were agreeable to set aside differences and explore partnerships. Fearing that none would be left to speak up against the BJP’s highhandedness (much like what Martin Niemöller said), dissimilar parties lent support to one another. Consequently, efforts to explore how to maximise one-on-one contests with BJP candidates appeared genuine and consensual.

This support and consensus were ephemeral, with difference resurfacing, mainly between the Congress and AAP. These developments must be assessed in the backdrop of Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) losing interest in Opposition unity after being a prime mover initially.

In the absence of a Third Front and the 2024 general elections being between the BJP and a nebulous anti-BJP alliance, with some states even seeing the dominant regional party contesting on its own — will we see three-cornered contests in several states?

The Congress’ scepticism to lend support to AAP in its opposition to the Union government’s ordinance stems from Kejriwal’s past efforts of making inroads into territories where the Congress was a significant player. The grand old party grudges AAP’s role during the 2022 Gujarat assembly polls. Further heightening suspicions is AAP’s plans to contest the forthcoming assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. The BRS has also declared plans in Maharashtra in regions where the Congress is considered strong. Given this, the Congress’ concern is whether AAP and the BRS are ginger groups aiming for a ‘Congress-mukt Opposition’. Are these parties selfishly muddying the electoral water in 2024 and preparing for a post-Modi era in Indian politics?

Kejriwal is possibly agitated because the Congress is not reining in AAP critics such as Ajay Maken. There is a possibility that the Congress leadership may have allowed an extended run to this narrative because it wishes to force Kejriwal to make electoral concessions in some states where both have presence. This is especially true of Delhi where despite AAP’s victory in assembly polls, the BJP swept all seven Lok Sabha seats in 2014 and 2019.

The only way the Opposition may prevent another clean sweep by the BJP is if AAP and the Congress prevent splitting of votes and forge a strategic pact. It, however, is difficult to envisage the Congress giving up efforts to regain its electoral base in Punjab, more so because the BJP-Shiromani Akali Dal combine is weakened.

The AAP-Congress rivalry has come as a shot in arm for the BJP which has been concerned over Opposition unity efforts. To de-escalate tension, AAP and the Congress need to trash out an understanding, and here other opposition parties/leaders could play a mediatory role. The next meeting of the opposition parties is in Shimla on July 12, before which a lot can take place.

(Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a Delhi-based journalist, is author of ‘The Demolition and the Verdict: Ayodhya and the Project to Reconfigure India’. Twitter: @NilanjanUdwin.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.