Insight is the foresight to know what seems so obvious in hindsight.
As the Aam Admi Party (AAP) takes off the velvet glove to unsheath its iron fist at the Bhartiya Janata Party(BJP), the strategic sagacity of its 'Congress-mukt Bharat' crusade - a country free of the Congress - is now being questioned from within, though still in hushed voices.
What was hitherto being seen as an AAP move for the Gujarat-Himachal Pradesh elections to carry forward the Delhi-Punjab performance at best, or elbow the Congress out from the main Opposition slot at worst, now carries ambitious overtones. On August 17, the AAP lifted the veil of its intent to pitch Arvind Kejriwal as the alternative to BJP's Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
If BJP's campaign slogan for Narendra Modi in 2014 centred around 'sab ka saath, sab ka vikas' and 'Congress-mukt Bharat, Kejriwal announced the launch of 'make India number one' mission (for 2024) focusing on free healthcare, free education, fair price to farmers, equal rights to women and employment for the youth. Raising the bar to national, he invited participation from each one of the 130 crore population and all political parties, even urging the Modi government to utilise the expertise of the AAP government in health and education to overhaul such and similar facilities in the country.
Doubts, if any, were cleared by Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia in his first press conference after the CBI raids when he charged that these were a mere façade by a Modi government which is riled at the rapidly rising national stature of Kejriwal." The New York Times takes note of the extraordinary work done by the Delhi government in the health and education sector through a spread-out, front-page report; the Indian government's response is a CBI raid on the state's education minister, who also happens to be the deputy chief minister," chimed in AAP leader Sanjay Singh.
If the BJP termed Kejriwal - a duly elected chief minister - as the 'kingpin' of a liquor scam", Sisodia pointed Gujarat-wards at the recent illicit liquor deaths, while pointing to an old video clip of chief minister Modi lashing out at the Manmohan Singh government for misusing the CBI to arrest his ministers and harass his officers. Kejriwal was quick to react on Sunday (August 21), accusing the Centre of fighting state governments.
The timing of the NYT praise for the Delhi model and the CBI raids on the education minister may be a coincidence, but what becomes evident through the sequence of events is the BJP's intent to quash the AAP's ambitions and the latter's determination to pit Kejriwal against Modi in 2024." The developments prove that the next Lok Sabha elections will be AAP versus BJP and Modi versus Kejriwal. You may arrest our health minister (Satyender Jain is behind bars), even our education minister, but we cannot be stopped," Singh said. Sisodia carried it further on Monday, alleging that the BJP had offered to drop all cases if he switched sides." Not in this lifetime," he added. The noticeable change in this continuing exchange is that, for the first time, the BJP is answering instead of questioning.
It is against this backdrop that the strategy of a Congress-free India is now being revisited though in a muted manner since it was enunciated by Modi and implemented by home minister Amit shah.
Seshadri Chari, a former editor of the Organiser and a right-wing intellectual, has been on record stating that the BJP is more powerful in states with a strong Congress presence and is diminished or non-existent in states where its principal ideological rival does not exist or has been relegated to the margins.
The Congress holds fort in Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan and is the principal Opposition in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Assam. The principal contestants change places from election to election. The BJP ruled Chhatisgarh but was defeated by the Congress, ditto Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, where the BJP ousted Congress and gained power through defections. All three go to the polls alongside Rajasthan next year for the merry-go-round ride. The bulk of the southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and even Kerala and eastern ones like Odisha and West Bengal continue to elude the BJP's reach. The determined attempt to topple the JMM-Congress-RJD government in Jharkhand has also failed to fructify.
Just as nature abhors a vacuum, the BJP's single-minded concentration on Congress-free India has been seized by the AAP as a heaven-sent opportunity to fill the space as the principal opposition. It was with this in mind that the AAP was spreading its wings in Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, MP and Karnataka when it hit pay dirt in Punjab, pulping the Congress to come to power as the BJP was virtually non-existent here. It is only post-Punjab that the BJP-ruled Centre is waking up to the national ambitions of the AAP and its plan to pitch Kejriwal as a counter-point to Prime Minister Modi in 2024.
Long years in power, its national character, and its Gandhian ancestry may have blunted the Congress's ability to fight a war with the vile of the sewers, but no such handicap inhibits the AAP when it takes on the BJP. Neither is the BJP under Modi a pushover. He has literally clawed his way to the top in his own party and then virtually savaged the Congress-led UPA government headed by the gentlemanly Manmohan Singh to come to power in 2014, retain it in 2019 and is intent on worsting the opposition in 2024.
Commencing its 'Congress -mukt Bharat' campaign in 2014, the BJP-headed NDA touched an all-time high in 2018, ruling 21 states, covering 70 per cent of the population and 76 per cent of the territory. It, however, lost in Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh, Karnataka and MP the same year but recouped the last two states through defections. After the elections early this year though it won in UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, it now rules in 18 states and one union territory (Puducherry) after replacing the MVA government in Maharashtra through a split in the Shiv Sena with their own.
The BJP may enjoy the advantage of a trained cadre and youth wing but is now bloated, even burdened by all manner of Congressmen, and those from other parties brought in indiscriminately to swell the ranks. The guiding criteria of local influence in beg, browbeat or buy is more to weaken the Congress than strengthen their own. The mindless expansion is at the cost of both their cadre and the committed. The BJP has embellished its ranks with four chief ministers of Congress stock - Himanta Biswa Sarma (Assam), Pema Khandu (Arunachal Pradesh), N Biren Singh (Manipur) and Manik Saha (Tripura), besides Jyotiraditya Scindia and Jitin Prasada and a horde of others. With a colourful record of castigating the BJP while enjoying key positions of power in the Congress, they have no compunctions about doing the reverse today. The party's plight when the Modi juggernaut encounters turbulence is best left unsaid.
On the other hand, the AAP is a comparatively young and growing set-up with an aggressive set of leaders and a youthful cadre that hits the streets hard and is a fair match even for the entrenched BJP, as is being witnessed in both Gujarat and Delhi. Even before the din of the Delhi CBI raids had subsided, both Kejriwal and Sisodia landed in Gujarat on a two-day visit on Tuesday to carry the fight onto the opponent's turf.
With the AAP offensive still unfolding, the Modi team, in the not too distant future, may well regret its campaign to cleanse the country of the Congress. As a Gujarati, he may perhaps like to take note of a saying in his language 'bakru kadhta, utt paithyo'. Loosely translated, it reads that the bid to get the goat out ended with the camel getting in.
(R K Misra is a senior journalist based in Ahmedabad)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.