Afghanistan’s isolation is crumbling. India should think up big ideas

The third anniversary of Taliban rule in Afghanistan passed by, as the diplomatic track became lively against the backdrop of wars in Ukraine and West Asia, with Washington on the lookout for pressure points against Russia and Iran. To be sure, the Taliban regime has come to stay. 

The self-confidence of the Taliban government was apparent when Kabul expressed interest in joining the BRICS and in attending the group’s summit on October 22-24 in Kazan, Russia. That may have to wait till a BRICS consensus emerges. Meanwhile, what is striking is that the Taliban chose to rationalise its move this way: “Countries with major resources and the world’s biggest economies are associated with the BRICS forum, especially Russia, India, and China. Currently, we have good economic ties and commercial exchanges with them. We are keen to expand our relations and participate in the economic forums of the BRICS.” 

No one would have anticipated such an audacious initiative from Kabul three years after its takeover. The image of American planes carrying evacuees taking off from Kabul airport with Afghans desperately clinging to its wings is still vivid in memory. The US Congress agonises why a humiliating US defeat happened at all.

There is no question that the isolation of Afghanistan is crumbling as a growing number of governments are establishing official or informal contacts with the Taliban government, according to a recent research published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. These include not just Russia, China, India, and Iran but also Western states such as Norway, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. Indeed, the Taliban themselves estimate that official recognition from the international community may take a while, but they should also play for time and focus on engaging with immediate neighbours.

This approach is vindicated by the announcement in Moscow last Friday that a decision to remove the Taliban from a list of terrorist organisations has been ‘taken at the highest level’ in the Kremlin. Amir Khan Muttaqi, Afghanistan’s foreign minister, was at hand in Moscow to hail the big news. October 4 marks a turning point not only for the Taliban government but regional security as well, as Moscow expects that the Taliban will never allow foreign military bases in its country — echoing a consistent Indian demand.

Importantly, the fourth largest economy by the yardstick of purchasing power parity — the most accurate indicator of ‘real GDP’ — is becoming Afghanistan’s partner in economic co-operation, which was hitherto not allowed under Russian law. Which means, three of the five largest world economies — China, India, and Russia — become Afghanistan’s key partners. Afghanistan is seeing light at the end of the tunnel after four decades when civil war dominated the narrative. 

In such a dramatic scenario, what should India do? Indian policy adapted well to the shift, but more can be done proactively. It is not sufficient to sit back and savour the moment that the Taliban authorities recently accused Pakistan of training elements of the Islamic State in camps located in Mastung, Balochistan. 

Two things should engage attention. First, the US is dissimulating indifference but in reality is inserting itself into the emerging paradigm. Russia is pushing for constructive engagement with the Taliban government. The West is pushing back by taking Afghanistan to the International Court of Justice. The post of US special representative for Afghanistan, which was created for engagement with Taliban authorities, was wound up last week and the official who held the post since October 2021 has been reassigned in the state department to oversee sanctions!  

Second, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, who is held in high esteem in Moscow, should revive his productive conversation with Russian counterparts to explore practical ways and means of integrating Indian business and industry into the implementation of the roadmap Moscow has drawn up, no doubt, for accelerating Russian-Afghan economic co-operation for the stabilisation of that country, which is crucial for Russia’s security. The Taliban will welcome Russian-Indian co-operation. 

Afghanistan has a multi-trillion-dollar (untapped) resource-base and Russian archives are a unique treasure house of geological maps. The Taliban government is doing its part diligently. The Afghani currency has stabilised; VOA reported that work on an unmetalled road has been completed through the 350-km long Wakhan Corridor up to the Chinese border. 

New Delhi should think up big ideas. That will be timely as the transportation route via Chabahar and the North-South International Transportation Corridor strengthen regional connectivity, with the signing of the historic Russian-Iranian security pact during the BRICS Summit. Afghanistan is no longer just an esoteric page in the great game where ‘ignorant armies clash by night.’ 

M K Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.