AI can help India’s disaster mitigation and management system

In the US, AI-powered weather forecasting systems have improved prediction accuracy by up to 30%, while in Japan, AI-driven early warning systems have reduced the response time to natural disasters by up to 50%.

India's vulnerability to natural disasters has been starkly exposed by recent calamities, ranging from the devastating landslides in Kerala and Sikkim to the relentless floods in Himachal Pradesh, Assam, and Tripura. These are not isolated events, but part of a disturbing trend that is becoming increasingly severe and frequent.

The destruction wrought by recent weather events, with Mumbai grappling with unprecedented floods and storms like Cyclone Remal in West Bengal leaving a trail of death and destruction, has underscored the urgent need for more resilient infrastructure and enhanced disaster risk reduction measures. The current crises, including the devastating floods in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, demand more than reactive measures; they necessitate a comprehensive, proactive approach to disaster management and mitigation.

As tracked by the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) for 2023-2024, India reports over 3,500 fatalities, more than 15 million people affected, suffering from displacement, loss of property, and disruption of daily life. The cumulative losses including damage to roads, bridges, buildings, and essential public infrastructure, exceeded $12 billion due to weather-related disasters, including floods, cyclones, and heatwaves. The impact on wildlife and livestock has also been severe, with tens of thousands of animals displaced or killed, particularly in flood-prone areas. In August alone, India witnessed 387 deaths; 271,485 people affected, and 39,414 houses damaged.

As per the ERCC, Tripura's recent floods have been recorded as the most severe since 1983, impacting over 1.7 million individuals. Such developments highlight the increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters in India, driven by climate change, which continues to pose challenges to disaster preparedness and response efforts.

Rebuilding efforts are ongoing, but the scale of the damage has placed considerable strain on resources as well. As we confront these challenges, it is imperative to delve into the causes, assess the impacts, and outline a path forward for policymakers. Learning from Odisha's transformation in disaster management over the past 25 years, triggered by the devastating 1999 Super Cyclone, has made it a leader in this field. The state implemented innovative strategies, focusing on communities and infrastructure, and offers valuable lessons for disaster-prone regions worldwide as they confront increasing climate risks.

Harnessing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) in weather prediction and environmental management can significantly enhance our adaptive capacity and enable data-driven decision-making. AI is transforming weather prediction in multiple ways vis-à-vis data analysis, predictive modelling, real-time forecasting, climate modelling, weather radar systems by detecting severe weather events more accurately, satellite imaging, ensemble forecasting through combining multiple models to generate more accurate forecasts, and nowcasting for short-term forecasts (within two hours) for severe weather events; etc.

AI is being used by weather agencies worldwide, including the United States’ National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the China Meteorological Administration and the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In addition to the multiple ways in which AI can be useful, the IMD is also using it for flood forecasting through AI-powered models to predict flood risk and alert authorities to take preventive measures.

In India, the application of AI in disaster management is still in its nascent stages. However, the potential benefits are immense. Hopefully, a recently proposed upgradation to the National Monsoon Mission with a budget of Rs 10,000 crore, will serve to jumpstart IMD towards further improving its ability as regards localised forecasting and extreme weather events.

By investing in AI-powered disaster management systems, India can reduce the impact of natural disasters, saving lives and livelihoods. AI-driven predictive analytics can help identify high-risk areas, enabling authorities to take proactive measures to evacuate people and minimise damage. Moreover, AI-powered chatbots can disseminate critical information to citizens, ensuring they are informed and equipped to handle emergencies. Experience also shows that the return on investment in disaster prevention is almost invariably better than that from post-disaster reconstruction. In the US, AI-powered weather forecasting systems have improved prediction accuracy by up to 30 per cent, while in Japan, AI-driven early warning systems have reduced the response time to natural disasters by up to 50 per cent. The importance of integrating AI-driven solutions in disaster management cannot be overstated.

India stands at a critical juncture. The Government of India's role in enabling AI adoption in disaster management has become crucial. It must provide incentives for research and development, and investment in AI infrastructure. At the same time, it should draw upon civil society, the private sector, grassroots organisations and NGOs, and other stakeholders, as they too play a significant supportive role in educating individuals and communities about disaster preparedness and response.

It may also be timely to review the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 at the international level, considering national good practices arising out of the application of AI-driven solutions to disaster risk management.

AI is revolutionising weather prediction, saving lives and reducing economic losses by providing more accurate and timely forecasts. By leveraging AI for weather predictions and early warning systems, India can better mitigate the impact of future calamities, build a safer, more resilient nation and ensure a more secure future for its citizens.

(Priyanka Vadrevu is research associate; and Ajai Malhotra is distinguished fellow, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and a former ambassador of India.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the authors' own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.