All eyes on China as Taiwan prepares for polls

The fact that Taiwan continues to be a separate entity underplays the idea of a strong Chinese nation. It is also directly linked to Chinese nationalism, which is a strong source of the Communist Party of China’s legitimacy.

Taiwan is all set to elect its new leader democratically on January 13, and this has resulted in a renewed war of words between Taipei and Beijing. For the last few months, Beijing has also ramped up its aggressive posturing. China’s aggression towards Taiwan is not new, especially during elections on the island. Since the 1996 elections, Beijing’s actions have remained predictably the same. This is primarily also because the democratic elections underscore the major departure between the two sides based on political structures.

In his New Year speech on December 31, China’s President Xi Jinping asserted that Taiwan was a “sacred territory” and “China will surely be reunified”.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, in her New Year address, claimed that Taipei’s relations with Beijing should be based on the “will of the Taiwanese people”. While Song Tao, the head of China's Taiwan Affairs Office, has said that the people on both sides want reunification, the Taiwanese people should work towards it.

The relationship has been consistently deteriorating since Tsai of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is perceived to be pro-independence, took over as President in 2016. For the upcoming elections, Beijing is irked by the DPP’s candidate Lai Ching-te, who is also the current Vice-President. Lai has been consistently asserting that the decision for Taiwan will be taken by the Taiwanese and cannot be dictated by Beijing, while also arguing that the two sides are “not subordinate to each other”.

Beijing’s show of force and use of military posturing has proved to be futile. Even during the last elections in 2020, Beijing undertook similar steps, but the Taiwanese people re-elected Tsai, even though China consistently worked towards reducing Taiwan’s diplomatic space. Over the years, particularly because of China’s financial clout, the number of countries that diplomatically recognise Taiwan have reduced.

The latest polling data shows a win for Lai and the DPP, but with a smaller margin. This will again prove that Beijing’s pressure tactics only pushes Taipei to assert its independence and democratic political structure.

Xi has been especially focussed on reunification as it is directly linked to his rejuvenation of China. The fact that Taiwan continues to be a separate entity underplays the idea of a strong Chinese nation. It is also directly linked to Chinese nationalism, which is a strong source of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s legitimacy. If the CPC is perceived to be softening towards Taiwan under Xi, it will impact the way the Chinese people view the leadership.

The Taiwan question has also gravely impacted the China-US ties. No surprises that during the November meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden, the former underscored that “Taiwan was the biggest, most dangerous issue in US-China ties”. The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) is the basis of Washington’s relations with Taipei, and is the basis of the sale of weapons worth millions of dollars. In August, Lai visited the US, which was severely condemned by Beijing. Beijing was also angry over the US’ weapons sales to Taiwan in August, and the meeting between US House Speaker McCarthy and Tsai in April. To add to this, there are reports that Xi may have ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to attack Taiwan in 2027.

In addition to missiles and jets flying across the Taiwan Strait, in 2023 Taipei also detected two spy balloons across the median line. There are also reports that Taipei is considering joining the International Criminal Court (ICC) to prevent Beijing from attacking the island.

Last year proved to be a critical point in China-Taiwan ties. While it is predicted that the DPP will win the elections, China would have been more comfortable with a status-quoist Kuomintang (KMT)’s victory. What remains to be seen is whether the results make Beijing revisit its approach towards Taiwan, and will that be a more nuanced one or a more aggressive one.

(Gunjan Singh is Assistant Professor, OP Jindal Global University)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.