Appeasement doesn’t work, time to change tack with China
The 2020 edition of the border stand-off seems to have been defused, with the armies of both India and China preparing a roadmap to return to ‘peace positions.’ The two armies, of course, reflect the views and strategies of their respective political establishments in New Delhi and Beijing. The question is whether the two countries will be able to go back to ‘peace positions.’
The last time the two armies came close to conflict was in Doklam in 2017 at the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction, located strategically between Tibet’s Chumbi Valley in the North, Bhutan’s Ha Valley in the East and India’s state of Sikkim in the West. The conflict zone was dangerously close to Siliguri Corridor, the small strip of land that bridges India’s North-East with the rest of the country.
Three years after Doklam and after two ‘informal’ summits’, China is once again flexing its military muscle in yet another strategic area, Ladakh. Throwing a spanner in China’s PLA-operated strategy, India, stepping up on decades-old border road construction plans, built an important all-weather road near the Pangong lake and another road connecting the nearly 255-km long Darbuk-Shayok-Daulat Beg Oldie road in Galwan Valley. This road will allow the Indian Army to easily access its post in the Karakoram Pass which oversees Chip Chap River, Trig Heights and Depsang Plains.
Beijing’s larger strategy is to force the Indian Army out of this area and then build its proposed road connecting Tibet with Gilgit-Baltistan. If implemented, this plan of China will weaken India’s position in the Siachen Glacier. This road will finally join the Karakoram Highway (KKH) running from Kashghar to Islamabad via Khunjerabh Pass and Gilgit in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK).
The success of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s ambitious global strategy and Xi Jinping’s personal signature project, requires unrestricted entry for China in PoK. China therefore is compelled to protect its assets in PoK to ensure unimpeded passage to Gwadar in the Indian Ocean. China is aware that given Pakistan’s situation, any Indian action on PoK will seriously jeopardise Beijing’s game plan.
Partition has been one of the key debilitating factors in India’s socio-economic progress and accomplishment of its strategic objectives since 1947 when we began our ‘tryst with destiny’. Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and Tibet have remained core issues in our engagement with the two neighbours who never ceased to harbour ill will against us despite the olive branch approach of successive governments in New Delhi.
Even after China’s Doklam misadventure, India went out of the way to accommodate China’s wish list and decided to play down the Tibet card. The President of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) Lobsang Sangay (not yet officially recognised as the Government of Tibet in Exile) and the Trade Representative of Taiwan, Chung-Kwang Tien, who were officially invited to Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in 2014, were not included in the guest list for the 2019 swearing-in ceremony. All this resulted in facilitating a cordial atmosphere in the first ‘informal summit’ between the two top leaders in April 2018 at Wuhan, now better known as the original epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both leaders agreed to provide “strategic guidance” to their respective armies to improve local communication and decided to seriously implement the existing mechanisms to prevent another ‘Doklam-like conflict’.
After a few incidence-free months, both countries seem to have entered a sphere of mutual suspicion and mistrust. The COVID-19 epidemic has added to the simmering tensions. The pandemic has prompted many countries to seriously consider floating a global anti-China platform. The shape of things to come is not clear but it is certain that any such global platform will expect New Delhi to be an active supporter of the anti-China action plan, whatever it may be. Domestically, too, there is a huge anti-China sentiment sweeping the country, and for some valid reasons.
While the “Wuhan spirit” seems to have completely evaporated, the Mamallapuram trade agreements are also not moving towards their logical conclusion. In such circumstances, the Ladakh stand-off should come as an opportunity for New Delhi to push the reset button and reconsider options other than those the two informal summits have offered.
New Delhi has to seriously consider taking a lead in forging a new regional trade forum to include commercial centres like Hong Kong and Taiwan and other countries that look to the new Indo-Pacific architecture as more than a security umbrella. If that amounts to revisiting the ‘One China Policy’, it is time to bite the bullet.
In a span of about 120 years, from the Boxer Revolution in 1900 to the border dispute in 2020, China has exhibited its strengths and weaknesses, experienced fall and rise, expanded in geography and fell apart again, and has experimented with various economic models. A strong military and economy alone do not add up to make a country a ‘Superpower’.
As an ancient civilisation, China needs to wake up to the current global realities. The world is not yet ready to accept China as a rule-maker and a hegemon, and probably will never be.