With the phenomenal rise of Yogi Adityanath, almost the entire landscape between the Himalayas and the Vindhyas is gradually turning saffron. Except for Punjab, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is either the ruling party or the challenger in the entire stretch.
The political narrative of the last two decades also brings forth a significant point: once the BJP entrenches itself in a state, it persists in remaining a contender. But, Bengal may alter this record if the recent civic polls in altogether 113 urban concentrations of Bengal, including Kolkata, are any indicator.
Amidst allegations of large scale vote loot and terrorising of the opposition, the state's ruling Trinamool Congress has secured 109 out of 113 municipalities and corporations, while three were hung, and one went to the CPI-M. The ruling party has won nearly 90 per cent wards securing about 65 per cent of the vote share.
What stands out along with this phenomenon is that the Left-Congress combination has marched ahead of the BJP in these elections. In the latest round of the civic polls in 108 municipalities, the Left-Congress duo has together secured 17.2 per cent vote, while the BJP managed 12.6 per cent. In the Kolkata Corporation, which polled last December, the CPI(M) alone bagged more votes than the BJP.
The vote percentages of the opposition parties are abnormally meagre, but the reason was made explicit by the veteran TMC MP Saugata Roy. "What has happened (violence and vote loot) is not good," he said and added, "People will not trust us anymore."
In the youth versus old tussle in the party, the 74-year-old is considered close to Abhishek Banerjee, the nephew of Mamata Banerjee and uncontested number two of the party, who made repeated appeals to his party to follow true democratic norms and spirit. But Abhishek Banerjee's words do not impact the rank and file of the party, and the following year's panchayat election will, in all probability, be an action replay.
Precisely this situation explains why the majority of those who dared to vote against the TMC opted for the Left-Congress.
We need to peruse a little of a backgrounder to understand the point. Bengal's political culture is deeply entrenched by 'khela' that includes violence, silent terror, and vote loot. This time, nine journalists were attacked, and Kolkata Press Club failed to react to the attacks, is incidental. Notable is that within twenty-four hours of Left's victory in Nadia district's Taherpur town, the local OC (officer-in-charge) has been transferred to the police lines.
The CPI(M) mastered this art in the 1990s when its popularity had started waning. To play out this scheme of things, it used strongmen. But the Left's entire muscle powerhouse shifted to the TMC as soon as it scaled the power in Bengal. Winning a panchayet seat or a civic ward provides scope to earn easy money and use power to get the other coveted elements of life, not only for the elected person but also for those close to him. So, the lower levels, inclusive of the musclemen, cannot leave anything to chance to elect the right person.
The TMC excelled in this game as soon as it came to power. Then a considerable section of the anti-TMC voters (oscillating between 52 to 56 per cent in the last ten years) shunned the Left-Congress when they failed in the 2016 Assembly elections. Three years later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's vote share rose from 10 per cent secured in 2016 to 42 per cent.
But after the failure of the BJP in the last Assembly poll, perhaps the majority of anti-TMC voters have realised if anyone can pay back the TMC in its own coin and resist the 'silent terror' or 'vote loot', it is the old and firmly entrenched secular parties of Bengal and not a newcomer that has squandered away its chances.
In other words, the political culture of Bengal is helping the Left-Congress combination. And they have another advantage that may help them in the near future.
After the recent mysterious death of Anis Khan (February 18), a student activist who opposed both the TMC and BJP, the Muslim mind is agitated. The needle of suspicion, in this case, points at the police force that raided his house on the night of his death, and the killers have not been identified yet. It may turn off a sizable chunk of the Muslim voters (30 per cent), who almost all voted for the TMC in the last Assembly polls. The only alternative for them is the Left-Cong combination.
So, though it is early to conclude anything, a strong possibility is brewing that Bengal may turn into an exceptional state where the BJP may fail to hold on to its gains.
(The writer is a journalist and author based in Kolkata)