<p>“Voting is as much an emotional act as it is an intellectual one," said Monica Crowley, a former political commentator and lobbyist, who is now an assistant secretary in the Department of Treasury in the US. While her observation holds true almost everywhere, in India at times the conflict of intellect and emotions can turn acute. Such a conflict is now being played out in Delhi.</p>.<p>Although preference of Indian voters has changed from time to time since Independence, but they have remained more or less loyal to a party or an 'ideology' for a significant time span. However there has been a clear shift from this trend in recent years. Voters are doing a cost-benefit analysis of the available options. As results vary for Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, they are voting differently for state and the national polls. In other words, voters are judging the situation by their intellect, and not going by emotion alone.</p>.<p>Delhi, which is going to vote on February 8, could prove to be a classic case as far as this new trend goes. A Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey after the May 2019 Lok Sabha election revealed that out of 56.5 per cent voters who voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Lok Sabha, 24 per cent had the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on their mind for the Assembly election. Another survey done by IANS-Cvoter more than six months later, in mid-January this year, found though 59.7 per cent predicted AAP would win but 70.7 per cent felt Narendra Modi is the best suited to be the PM.</p>.<p>Simply put, a significant portion of Delhi voters were acting as the ‘intelligent voter’. They feel that Narendra Modi as prime minister and Arvind Kejriwal as chief minister will serve their interest best.</p>.<p>This spelled bad news for the BJP, which now desperately needs to win the Delhi election to show the world that people are with them during the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)-National Register of Citizens (NRC) controversy. The only way it could be done is by converting the intelligent voter into an emotional one. So, the Saffron party is playing all the available cards to change the situation, the most prominent being the Shaheen Bagh card. Without going into the details of their campaign over the last ten days (starting with the <i>D</i><i>esh k</i><i>e</i><i> gaddaron ko/ </i><i>G</i><i>oli maro...</i> provocation), we may say that BJP has started an emotional bombardment involving nationalism and Hindutva to win back the shifting voters.</p>.<p>The outcome of this effort could have a far-reaching effect on electoral politics as it will show whether emotive issues like nationalism or Hindutva can sway the citizens’ minds in the foreseeable future. To judge the significance of it, a brief recap of voting behaviour of the Indians will not be out of order.</p>.<p>Indian voters, traditionally, were guided by emotion as manifested by their prolonged loyalty to a single party. After independence, Jawaharlal Nehru's Congress got 45 to 48 percent votes from 1952 to 1962, and enjoyed a thumping majority as the Opposition vote splintered between a plethora of parties. 1967 saw a shift in voter's loyalty to some extent and Congress could manage to win a slender majority in the Lok Sabha with just 40.78 per cent of the votes. But, with nearly the same percentage of votes, in 1977 Indira Gandhi lost power. Opposition parties came together to defeat her. In later years, various developments like Indira Gandhi's assassination, the Ram Mandir movement, Mandalisation of politics and consolidation of Hindu votes shook the polity time and again. But all the changes were mainly guided by emotional appeals, identity politics included.</p>.<p>In general, until a few years ago, emotional attachment guided people to vote for the same party for both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. The voters of some states though were an exception. This trend has become the norm since 2018 as we saw it happening in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh where Assembly and Lok Sabha elections were held within a period of 6 to 7 months.</p>.<p>The trend is continuing, and according to different surveys, the shifting vote could have reached a high of 30 per cent or more in Delhi. Here not only the BJP, but the Congress vote too is likely to shift towards the Aam Admi Party. For the Lok Sabha, 55.56 percent preferred the BJP, 22.51 preferred the Congress and 18.11 the AAP. As the Congress is almost marginalised this time, AAP could be set to cross the 50 per cent mark, if pre-poll surveys are to be believed. This would mean that it would win by a thumping majority.</p>.<p>This has been the script so far. But in between came the massive anti-CAA protest with its symbolic epicentre at Shaheen Bagh. While for the BJP the Delhi election turned into a high stakes one, it brought discomfort for Arvind Kejriwal too. Actively supporting Shaheen Bagh may cost him Hindu votes, while opposing it can make the Muslims antagonistic to his party. So he took a middle path, and sought votes on the basis of his work only. To counter him, BJP has obliquely appealed to the Hindus to come forward to protect the making of a strong, proud India.</p>.<p>If the BJP’s effort succeeds, it will be proved that intelligent voters too can turn into emotional voters if they somehow feel threatened, irrespective of whether the perception is real or not.<br /> </p>.<p><em>(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a Kolkata-based journalist and author of books including, A Naxal Story. He is a deputy editor at the Bengali daily, Aajkal)</em></p>.<p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>
<p>“Voting is as much an emotional act as it is an intellectual one," said Monica Crowley, a former political commentator and lobbyist, who is now an assistant secretary in the Department of Treasury in the US. While her observation holds true almost everywhere, in India at times the conflict of intellect and emotions can turn acute. Such a conflict is now being played out in Delhi.</p>.<p>Although preference of Indian voters has changed from time to time since Independence, but they have remained more or less loyal to a party or an 'ideology' for a significant time span. However there has been a clear shift from this trend in recent years. Voters are doing a cost-benefit analysis of the available options. As results vary for Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, they are voting differently for state and the national polls. In other words, voters are judging the situation by their intellect, and not going by emotion alone.</p>.<p>Delhi, which is going to vote on February 8, could prove to be a classic case as far as this new trend goes. A Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey after the May 2019 Lok Sabha election revealed that out of 56.5 per cent voters who voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Lok Sabha, 24 per cent had the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on their mind for the Assembly election. Another survey done by IANS-Cvoter more than six months later, in mid-January this year, found though 59.7 per cent predicted AAP would win but 70.7 per cent felt Narendra Modi is the best suited to be the PM.</p>.<p>Simply put, a significant portion of Delhi voters were acting as the ‘intelligent voter’. They feel that Narendra Modi as prime minister and Arvind Kejriwal as chief minister will serve their interest best.</p>.<p>This spelled bad news for the BJP, which now desperately needs to win the Delhi election to show the world that people are with them during the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)-National Register of Citizens (NRC) controversy. The only way it could be done is by converting the intelligent voter into an emotional one. So, the Saffron party is playing all the available cards to change the situation, the most prominent being the Shaheen Bagh card. Without going into the details of their campaign over the last ten days (starting with the <i>D</i><i>esh k</i><i>e</i><i> gaddaron ko/ </i><i>G</i><i>oli maro...</i> provocation), we may say that BJP has started an emotional bombardment involving nationalism and Hindutva to win back the shifting voters.</p>.<p>The outcome of this effort could have a far-reaching effect on electoral politics as it will show whether emotive issues like nationalism or Hindutva can sway the citizens’ minds in the foreseeable future. To judge the significance of it, a brief recap of voting behaviour of the Indians will not be out of order.</p>.<p>Indian voters, traditionally, were guided by emotion as manifested by their prolonged loyalty to a single party. After independence, Jawaharlal Nehru's Congress got 45 to 48 percent votes from 1952 to 1962, and enjoyed a thumping majority as the Opposition vote splintered between a plethora of parties. 1967 saw a shift in voter's loyalty to some extent and Congress could manage to win a slender majority in the Lok Sabha with just 40.78 per cent of the votes. But, with nearly the same percentage of votes, in 1977 Indira Gandhi lost power. Opposition parties came together to defeat her. In later years, various developments like Indira Gandhi's assassination, the Ram Mandir movement, Mandalisation of politics and consolidation of Hindu votes shook the polity time and again. But all the changes were mainly guided by emotional appeals, identity politics included.</p>.<p>In general, until a few years ago, emotional attachment guided people to vote for the same party for both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. The voters of some states though were an exception. This trend has become the norm since 2018 as we saw it happening in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh where Assembly and Lok Sabha elections were held within a period of 6 to 7 months.</p>.<p>The trend is continuing, and according to different surveys, the shifting vote could have reached a high of 30 per cent or more in Delhi. Here not only the BJP, but the Congress vote too is likely to shift towards the Aam Admi Party. For the Lok Sabha, 55.56 percent preferred the BJP, 22.51 preferred the Congress and 18.11 the AAP. As the Congress is almost marginalised this time, AAP could be set to cross the 50 per cent mark, if pre-poll surveys are to be believed. This would mean that it would win by a thumping majority.</p>.<p>This has been the script so far. But in between came the massive anti-CAA protest with its symbolic epicentre at Shaheen Bagh. While for the BJP the Delhi election turned into a high stakes one, it brought discomfort for Arvind Kejriwal too. Actively supporting Shaheen Bagh may cost him Hindu votes, while opposing it can make the Muslims antagonistic to his party. So he took a middle path, and sought votes on the basis of his work only. To counter him, BJP has obliquely appealed to the Hindus to come forward to protect the making of a strong, proud India.</p>.<p>If the BJP’s effort succeeds, it will be proved that intelligent voters too can turn into emotional voters if they somehow feel threatened, irrespective of whether the perception is real or not.<br /> </p>.<p><em>(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a Kolkata-based journalist and author of books including, A Naxal Story. He is a deputy editor at the Bengali daily, Aajkal)</em></p>.<p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>