Changing landscape of immigration

Immigration remains a top priority in policy discussions this election year, resonating strongly with the electorate. Globally, several elections, including the European Union parliamentary elections and the United States elections, have consistently focused on leaders’ and political parties’ immigration policies, with many advocating for “protecting domestic workforces” and tightening borders. A recent conversation with senior executives from an immigration consultancy firm, Fragomen, revealed emerging trends in global immigration policies affecting both employment and education.

In India, there is a notable “reverse brain drain” with many, especially tech-preneurs, returning to the country and expanding businesses and employment opportunities, according to Saju James, managing director and partner, Fragomen Immigration Services India.

“The first immigration handbook was created in India in 2009. We were directly involved with the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM). It became the final rulebook for Indian immigration policies. Since then, we have seen the government looking at progressive ways of managing immigration. We see it only getting better,” said Saju.

Traditionally, Indian students have favoured destinations like Australia, the United Kingdom, the US, Canada, and Germany. Now, there is a visible shift towards other European countries due to relaxed admission processes, affordability, and accessibility to higher education and job opportunities.

Calibration is key, as noted by the Fragomen representatives, for governments to strike a balance between openness to migration and domestic protectionism.

“The information flow today is near-perfect, so people can weigh the value of settling permanently in another country versus gaining experience abroad and returning home to more professional and personal opportunities,” said Bo Cooper, partner, Fragomen.

He noted that the outcome of several elections, especially in the US, could lead to a continuation of “the protection of the domestic workforce”. “We see that that is going to translate into more muscular immigration enforcement.”

However, Scott M Leeb, chief knowledge officer at Fragomen, noted that this approach, especially post-Covid-19, will not last long. “Because there is a global skill shortage, the economic pressures are going to outweigh the political pushes for this restrictivism (for immigration). So we see that, regardless of how these elections play out, this restrictivism will ease over time,” he said.

The key factor will be how well governments recognise the importance of harnessing global talent through migration to fulfil their demographic gaps and domestic needs.

The Covid-19 pandemic meant immigration ground to halt, forcing countries to develop systems to address visa backlogs. But the lack of technology at the time hampered the process, and countries are still catching up, resulting in further delays, they noted.

The pandemic also resulted in the growth of the digital nomad movement and hybrid workplaces, pushing countries and companies to rethink compliance rules and immigration policies to compete for the interest of skilled workforce across borders, Bo and Scott echoed.

This is also reflected in the wage-level decisions, Enrique Gonzalez, co-chair of Fragomen, added. “As housing costs have shot up and workplace flexibility allows employees to work from another state, companies are having to figure out which wage level they should be paying their employees,” he said.

We can expect more free movement globally as countries’ workforce policies move from traditional degree-based jobs towards skill-based jobs, noted Scott. Countries that can devise better incentives and innovations to attract talented youth will fare better, he added.

Countries that are “non-traditional” choices for employment and education will therefore more likely be sought after, they noted, considering the rising costs of living and global inflation. This will create a ripple effect, with countries, universities, and companies reacting accordingly to harness global talent by tweaking their policies, they added.

Climate change will also influence migration patterns, driving people to move where natural resources are more abundant.

“Global demographics are going to drive the change. As the population becomes younger and more liberal, it will be more accepting and understanding, and then perhaps there will be changes in certain legislation in some countries that would otherwise, under the current demographics, not succeed,” noted Enrique.

He added that recent amendments to EB-5 visa programme allow residents worldwide, especially Indians, to obtain permanent residency reservations within 1.5 years if they invest $800,000 in priority projects. This change, which also allows their spouses and children under 21 to obtain green cards, could encourage more movement to the US.