Congress’s problem is far deeper, more serious than one imagines

Why would any regional party in South India be willing to give space to the Congress if it cannot bring enough seats to the table from the north of the Vindhyas to make a viable second pan-Indian axis

‘There's no reason to have a plan B because it distracts from Plan A’ is a quote credited to actor Will Smith. Apocryphal or not, this aphorism seems to have left a deep impression in the minds of strategists in the Indian National Congress.

In any situation in life, war, business, or politics, one always considers alternate scenarios or ‘what if’ possibilities. Not so with the Congress it appears. After losing the 2014 general elections the grand old party plunged into an existential crisis. Being at a loose end, its then vice-president, Rahul Gandhi, took off on a long vacation overseas. It took the party nearly five years to recover its mojo.

In the run-up to the 2019 elections, it mounted a massive campaign on the plank of ‘Chowkidar Chor Hain’ that fell flat on its face. Following the rout, Gandhi resigned as party president, leaving it for his mother and former party president, Sonia Gandhi, to pick up the pieces. We are seeing an encore of the same now after the recent elections that have gone contrary to its internal projections and, to be fair, general expectations.

The adage goes, once is happenstance, twice is coincidence. Three times is a pattern. This can be the perfect description of the current-day Congress. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would have factored in the prospects of defeat in one or multiple states. It would have, accordingly, kept scripts and contingency plans ready. But not so with the Congress. It was so carried away by the victory in Karnataka and the symphony playing within its echo chamber that it did not think it necessary to have a backup plan in place. This is evident from the stunned, disjointed and often contradictory reactions of its various leaders and the silence of the party high command.

 

However, the problem is far deeper and more serious than one imagines. Post-Karnataka, and bathed in the euphoria of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, the Congress had started behaving as the numero uno in the Opposition line-up. The results of the just-concluded assembly polls pour buckets of cold water over such premature assertion of entitlement. With roughly two months to go before the Lok Sabha polls are announced and the model code of conduct comes into play, there is little time left for Congress to get its act together and the challenges are multifarious.

First, it is to ask for the resignations of the regional satraps under whose leadership the state elections were fought. But the absence of a second line of leadership is also a painful reality. Sachin Pilot cannot step into the shoes of Ashok Gehlot, T S Singh Deo will not be able to replace Bhupesh Baghel, and Digvijaya Singh is as much of a spent force as Kamal Nath. There is no lineup of young leaders visible in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. Though nature abhors vacuum, two months is too short a time for even mighty nature to act. Since all these states have a bipolar polity, a third force cannot emerge from the wings in a hurry. Thus, it could well turn out to be a walkover for the BJP in 2024.

The ramifications of this on the I.N.D.I.A. alliance can be even more lethal for the Congress. After this setback, most of the regional parties would be wary of tying their fortunes with a sinking ship. Many of the regional leaders are past their political ‘sell-by date’, and are keen to secure the future of their progeny. The sheer instinct of self-preservation might prompt them to look at other options, or try to re-engineer other configurations. Some may even consider returning to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold or striking deals with the BJP.

Buoyed by the victory in Telangana, the Congress is bullish about the theory of a ‘North-South’ split in the national polity. However, it is difficult to fathom, why would any of the southern parties be willing to give it space if the Congress cannot manage to bring enough seats to the table from the north of the Vindhyas to make a viable second pan-Indian axis. 

So jibes by Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leaders on ‘Sanatan Dharma’ and the recent comment by Lok Sabha MP Senthilkumar may not be innocent indiscretions. The Congress may find itself between a rock and hard place — na ghat ka na ghar ka, as they say in the ‘Hindi-belt’. So, the prize acquisition of Telangana will be caught in this ‘North-South’ tussle. That is not such a happy place to be in. Ian Fleming, the creator of James Bond, had twisted the witticism quoted above in Goldfinger as, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action”. The Congress may well allege it's a BJP conspiracy. 

(Sandip Ghose is a current affairs commentator and marketing professional. X: @SandipGhose.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.