Despite recent setbacks, TMC remains formidable across West Bengal

Can Prime Minister Narendra Modi break Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s most secure social constituency — women?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has started intense campaigning in West Bengal again with three rallies in the first six days of March and one scheduled for March 9 in Siliguri, in north Bengal. Given that Lok Sabha elections have not yet been notified, this gives a good idea of how important the state is to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

We need to take note of a number of fresh developments in West Bengal that have the potential to change the political arithmetic. Most important are the events in the Sandeshkhali area in North 24 Parganas, which is part of the Basirhat Lok Sabha constituency, currently held by Nusrat Jahan of the Trinamool Congress (TMC).

On March 6, Modi thundered at a public meeting in the neighbouring town of Barasat, part of the adjoining Barasat constituency, that the reverberations of the movement would sound across the state.

Three separate things came together in Sandeshkhali to force women, mainly, out of their homes to forge a powerful movement against the local TMC hierarchy, led by Sheikh Shahjahan — the now expelled and incarcerated TMC leader.

First, the forceful expropriation of agricultural land and their conversion into bheris (pisciculture tanks) by Shahjahan’s gang. Second, the putative complicity of other party leaders, allegedly including elected representatives, bureaucrats, and policemen, in this land grab and other forms of corruption, including the diversion of development funds and material meant for the public distribution system (PDS). Third, the sexual exploitation of women in the area by Shahjahan and his minions. Shamefully, this continued for years.

Modi made it clear that he is banking on breaking Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s most secure social constituency — women. Since coming to power, Banerjee has rolled out 14 schemes either exclusively for women or for both them and men, including the much-lauded Kanyashree and Lakshmir Bhandar. In the process, she has built an impregnable constituency of women, who vote at a marginally higher rate than men.

It is unlikely, whatever Modi may say in Barasat, that this statewide constituency will be broken, even though there’s no question about the enormity of the Sandeshkhali crimes. Moreover, the state government has been seen to move, though a little late, to address both the sexual exploitation and land-grab issues.

After Sandeshkhali, the TMC has seen two sets of resignations. Three-time MLA Tapas Roy of the Baranagar seat in the Dum Dum Lok Sabha constituency, in the same general neighbourhood, resigned from the party and the membership of the assembly, and joined the BJP. The ED had him in its sights. There is talk that he will be fielded from the Kolkata North constituency against the TMC’s Sudip Bandyopadhyay, a five-term MP from the constituency in this and its previous avatar (Kolkata Northwest, before delimitation). Though some have blown up this defection, it is unlikely to have serious repercussions.

What may be more significant is the resignation from his party posts of Kunal Ghosh, a close aide of TMC’s Diamond Harbour MP Abhishek Banerjee. It raises the spectre of the intergenerational factionalism within the party resurfacing. But, as of now, Ghosh seems to have quietened down after being showcaused for making anti-party statements.

It would appear in the light of all this that the TMC is beleaguered. But that’s not substantively the case. Sandeshkhali is unlikely to have statewide or medium-term repercussions, given that the area has quietened down, and the administration has been proactive about making sure that grabbed lands are returned to its owners. Moreover, Basirhat has close to 50 per cent of Muslim voters. A personal intervention from Banerjee will go a long way to soothe the wounds.

On the flip side, it’s worth noting that the TMC has made impressive strides to regain support in north Bengal, of late dominated by the BJP, by distributing land plots to tea-garden workers, mediating to raise wages, and rolling out a welfare scheme called ‘Chaa Sundari’. Moreover, the Rajbanshi people, who constitute around 30 per cent of the population here seem to have become disillusioned with the BJP.

Similarly, the Matua community, which had switched support to the BJP in 2019 are angry that promises, revolving around the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, have been shelved. The sudden cancellation of Aadhaar cards in West Bengal, too, seems to have disproportionately affected it.

Thus, recent developments have affected both the TMC and the BJP. But the ruling party in the state has the upper hand, given that importing campaigners from outside and engineering defections didn’t play out the way the BJP expected during the 2021 Assembly elections.

(Suhit K Sen is author of ‘The Paradox of Populism: The Indira Gandhi Years, 1966-1977’.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.