Trump in Washington is bad news for nations that exercise strategic autonomy

Donald Trump’s treatment of Kevin Rudd, Australia’s ambassador to the US, will be an indicator to the world on what to expect from the president-elect over the next four years

Between the rambunctious hour when it became clear that Donald Trump would be returning to the White House and the time this article is published, a lot of hours and labour have been expended in India’s public sphere on what Trump’s victory could mean for New Delhi. This is not surprising because the United States is India’s most important external relationship, and is likely to remain so in the foreseeable future.  

However, president-elect Trump is unlikely to spend any time soon on how he wants to deal with India. In any case, the US has a relationship with India, which is largely problem-free. This was so when Trump was president earlier, and it has been so in the Joe Biden administration, barring minor irritants. Crisis is what gets the attention of an incoming president — or of a sitting Head of State — and there is no crisis with India as of now. 

Trump’s main priority this month, and possibly in December, will be to figure out how to remain out of jail until he is sworn in on January 20 as the 47th President of the US. Once he is sworn in, he can pardon himself and stay out of jail permanently. Without a pardon, a possible prison term could hang over Trump’s head like a Damocles’ sword and become operational when he ceases to be Head of State at the end of his four-year term.  

Since Trump’s historic election, indications have been rife that having won the people’s mandate — both in the Electoral College and in popular vote — judges may let him off lightly, or may not send a president-elect to prison. Probation or heavy fine, not jail, is being discussed as a distinct possibility for Trump.

These reports may well be planted by the Republican Party’s disinformation machine or it may be speculation by journalists chasing this story. We won’t know the truth until November 26. That is when Trump’s sentencing has been scheduled in a New York case of falsifying business records to pay hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels. A jury found him guilty on 34 counts in May.

He faces the prospect of four years in jail, but the judge postponed sentencing twice at the request of Trump’s lawyers in view of the election campaign. That postponement is a reflection of judiciary’s respect for democratic norms. It would not have happened in much of the world outside the US. Trump faces a tricky situation in this case because it is a New York state case: a president can pardon himself only in federal cases. Whatever happens, a lot of his time as president-elect will be taken up in trying to settle this and several other pending criminal cases. 

Being a vengeful and vindictive person by nature and character, an important diplomatic priority for Trump, as soon as he is installed in office, may be to get Australia to withdraw its current Ambassador from Washington. As soon as the Republican won the election, Kevin Rudd, the Ambassador, hastily deleted his posts on X, describing Trump as “the most destructive President in history.” 

Rudd is a former Australian Prime Minister and a respected, Mandarin-speaking Sinologist. The ambassador had also said of Trump that “he drags America and democracy through the mud.” He rationalised the post-poll deletions as being “out of respect for the office of President of the US.” Such condescension is unlikely to be enough to mollify Trump.

He told Nigel Farage, broadcaster-turned-member of the House of Commons in the United Kingdom, in a television interview that Rudd won’t be in Washington much longer. The interview, which has been widely quoted in the media on both sides of the Atlantic since Trump’s victory, also saw the president-elect insulting Rudd as “nasty” and that “he is not the brightest bulb.”  

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke to Trump after the election, and was quoted in The New York Times as “ready for a shift in Washington.” If Albanese gives in to Trump’s whim, it will make things difficult for other US partners like India. Such actions will signal that other countries are nothing more that doormats for the billionaire who has got almost everything in life that he ever wished for.

Another similar worrying sign was the tone and tenor of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s congratulatory phone call to Trump. Seoul is worried about Trump’s bonhomie with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and is willing to do any US bidding. It is not a good augury for countries which want to exercise strategic autonomy from Trump's Washington.

(K P Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.