Trump 2.0 is also Chaos 2.0 for the world

It’s a sweep that no pollster predicted — and one with deep consequences for the world

Donald Trump on Wednesday won the presidency of United States for the second time, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in a race that polls had predicted would be neck-and-neck — but one that the former president won comfortably.

So comfortably that Trump appears poised to win more Electoral College votes than he did in 2016 when he first won the presidency after an insurrectionist campaign.

That’s not all: He is on course to comfortably win the popular vote, something that eluded him in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. That’s still not all: The wave he rode also helped his Republican Party win a majority in the US Senate, four years after Democrats narrowly took control of the upper chamber of the US Congress. The Republicans are also expected to win the House of Representatives.

If that happens, Trump will have complete control over both the executive and the legislature, with the top judiciary — the Supreme Court — already packed with his appointees. It’s the closest the US has had to an all-powerful leader in decades.

And Trump’s no ordinary leader.

Through his first term and ever since, he has unapologetically broken with the Washington consensus on key issues — from globalisation to war to climate change. All that held him back, at times, was the Congress, or the restraining hand of a veteran general or bureaucrat in his team.

Now, with Trump expected to surround himself with loyalists in his new administration, those leashes won’t be in place.

So what does that mean for the world?

First, Russia’s war in Ukraine could face a significant shift. Trump has said that he will push for a ceasefire even before taking office. He has also been critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s persistent efforts to secure aid and ammunition from the US. In a nutshell, expect Trump to tighten the spigot of assistance to Ukraine unless Kyiv agrees to come to the negotiating table with Moscow.

What could a Russia-Ukraine deal look like? Trump’s running mate J D Vance spelt it out a few weeks ago: A buffer zone, Russian control of Ukrainian territory that it had grabbed, and a commitment from Kyiv that it won’t join NATO.

If Trump does press ahead with such a plan, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be thrilled, Ukraine will be upset, and Europe and US’ other NATO allies will face a difficult decision: Do they try and support Ukraine without the US by their side, or facilitate the best deal possible for Kyiv under those circumstances?

A tougher test awaits Trump when it comes to the other major conflict shaping the world: Israel’s devastating war on Gaza in which more than 43,000 Palestinians have been killed. As that war has expanded, and as Arab American voters angry with the administration of President Joe Biden threatened to punish the Democrats over the conflict, Trump has tried to tap into that sentiment. He has promised to end the war swiftly, and wooed Muslims in Michigan, home to North America’s largest Arab American community.

But Trump also has had strong ties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and is unlikely to turn against Tel Aviv. If he can help end the war on Gaza that Netanyahu appears determined to continue, that would burnish Trump’s credentials as a peacemaker. The carrot he can offer to Netanyahu is the normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

In his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal, and authorised the assassination of top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, dragging Washington and Tehran to the precipice of war. But in recent weeks he has suggested that he might be open to renegotiating that deal with Iran, which under new President Masoud Pezeshkian has also extended a hand of diplomacy to the West.

Yet Trump has already made clear that the cornerstone of his foreign policy will be trade and tariffs: And China in particular, will be in his crosshairs. He has threatened up to 60% tariffs on Chinese goods. His clear-eyed view on China — not Russia — as US’ principal geopolitical rival melds well with India’s perspective. It could ease pressure on New Delhi over its traditional friendship with Moscow, while allowing India and the US to double down on their security co-operation focused on their shared threat perceptions involving China.

There is a risk though: On trade and tariffs, China could offer enough of a compromise to Trump to get him to back off on security concerns in the South China Sea. India must find a way to avoid losing out in that game of chess.

Ultimately, Trump’s greatest strength is also his weakness. Like a true businessman, his calling card is the assurance that he gets stuff done. But transactional diplomacy means that no one — neither the friends nor rivals of the US — can take anything for granted. Trump 2.0 is also Chaos 2.0 for the world.

(Charu Sudan Kasturi is a senior journalist whose work focuses on international relations, trade, energy, and technology. Twitter: @CharuKasturi.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.