Beyond the optics of Modi’s Russia visit

The drift in the relationship is becoming more apparent.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Moscow has underlined some enduring aspects of the India-Russia relationship. For one, it revived the annual summit, alternately held in India and Russia. Modi's last visit to Russia was in 2019 for a summit held in Vladivostok. President Vladimir Putin visited Delhi in 2021, the last time substantive dialogue took place between the two leaders before Modi's visit earlier this week.

Among other reasons for the pause from New Delhi’s end was Russia's war against Ukraine and India's growing proximity to the United States. When Putin and Modi last met on the sidelines of the 2022 Samarkand summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, they agreed “to remain in touch”. Indeed, the two sides were never out of touch. The two leaders have spoken several times on the phone.

Since the war began, India worked around international sanctions against Russia to buy more oil from the country than it had ever done before. But a sense of drift was apparent, as New Delhi's comfort level with Washington DC — problems notwithstanding — increased.

In seeking to correct that impression, this year's summit set a new target of $100 billion by 2030 for bilateral trade. But this is low-hanging fruit, considering that an earlier target of $30 billion for 2025, set at Vladivostok, has been crossed, with two-way trade already at over $60 billion this year on the back of India's oil purchases.

Despite the buzz over the signing of nine agreements, the lack of new energy in economic and defence ties was obvious. India's diversification of its defence purchases has long been the elephant in the India-Russia room. The joint statement's polite description of the defence partnership as “reorienting presently to joint research and development, co-development and joint production”, with “commitment to maintain the momentum” says everything. 

Of course, Modi's visit was a huge boost for an isolated Putin. But if Modi went to Moscow to balance Putin's Beijing love, this was an unreal expectation. New Delhi does not hold the key to unlock this embrace. Russia's proximity to China has many reasons, mostly originating in Putin's relations with the West. Today, Chinese imports are driving a bilateral trade with Russia worth $240 billion. The agreement to send back some 35 Indian men conned into serving in the Russian Army was a long time coming.

That it took a prime ministerial visit speaks much about the ties. Predictably, the US and Ukraine have reacted strongly to the Modi-Putin rendezvous. Modi's condemnation — dramatic language notwithstanding — of the Russian bombing of a children's hospital in Kyiv, has failed to impress the world. The limits of New Delhi’s so-called strategic autonomy are staring it in the face. If India wants the Russia relationship, it will need to water this plant more, but that will make the tightrope act that much more difficult.