<p class="bodytext">The change of guard in the Haryana government was not unexpected because the BJP has often changed Chief Ministers in states going into elections. It has replaced Manohar Lal Khattar, who had headed the government for over nine years, with the state party president Nayab Singh Saini. The party had made changes in Uttarakhand and Gujarat also before the Assembly elections in those states. The changes helped to blunt any anti-incumbency sentiment against the government by providing the party with a fresh face. The changes were decided and implemented by the central leadership but the party did not have to contend with any dissent or rebellion as the leadership has control over state party units and governments. </p>.<p class="bodytext">The change in Haryana may also be intended for consolidation of the party’s caste support before the Lok Sabha elections and the state Assembly elections later this year. The party may have wanted to consolidate its non-Jat votes in the state, and the appointment of Nayab Singh Saini, an Other Backward Caste (OBC) leader, as Chief Minister is part of the plan. This is similar to the appointment of Mohan Yadav as Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister and the outreach the party has made to the OBC community in other states. The party may also have wanted to replace Khattar with a younger leader. Haryana politics has been dominated by Jats who are the major community in the state. The BJP has relied on a social combination that excluded the Jats, and it sticks to it. </p>.<p class="bodytext">The change in Haryana also meant the end of the BJP’s alliance with the Jat-dominated Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) led by Dushyant Chautala. The BJP did not have a majority of its own in the Assembly after the 2019 elections and had accepted the support of the JJP. It has felt that the JJP has become too demanding and has decided to put an end to the alliance. The BJP has always been transactional and even cynical in making and breaking alliances. While it has accepted into the fold old allies like the JD(U) and the TDP, it has dropped allies when they ceased to be of value. The JJP is also typically facing a split, an effect that an embrace with BJP has had for many other parties, too. The BJP may not have to worry much about its prospects in Haryana for the Lok Sabha elections, but the situation is likely to be different in the Assembly elections. It only secured 22% votes in the last elections but may have the advantage of a divided Opposition this time. Issues like the farmers’ agitation, wrestlers’ protests against sexual harassment, and the Agniveer scheme may find traction in the Assembly elections, if not in the Lok Sabha elections. </p>
<p class="bodytext">The change of guard in the Haryana government was not unexpected because the BJP has often changed Chief Ministers in states going into elections. It has replaced Manohar Lal Khattar, who had headed the government for over nine years, with the state party president Nayab Singh Saini. The party had made changes in Uttarakhand and Gujarat also before the Assembly elections in those states. The changes helped to blunt any anti-incumbency sentiment against the government by providing the party with a fresh face. The changes were decided and implemented by the central leadership but the party did not have to contend with any dissent or rebellion as the leadership has control over state party units and governments. </p>.<p class="bodytext">The change in Haryana may also be intended for consolidation of the party’s caste support before the Lok Sabha elections and the state Assembly elections later this year. The party may have wanted to consolidate its non-Jat votes in the state, and the appointment of Nayab Singh Saini, an Other Backward Caste (OBC) leader, as Chief Minister is part of the plan. This is similar to the appointment of Mohan Yadav as Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister and the outreach the party has made to the OBC community in other states. The party may also have wanted to replace Khattar with a younger leader. Haryana politics has been dominated by Jats who are the major community in the state. The BJP has relied on a social combination that excluded the Jats, and it sticks to it. </p>.<p class="bodytext">The change in Haryana also meant the end of the BJP’s alliance with the Jat-dominated Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) led by Dushyant Chautala. The BJP did not have a majority of its own in the Assembly after the 2019 elections and had accepted the support of the JJP. It has felt that the JJP has become too demanding and has decided to put an end to the alliance. The BJP has always been transactional and even cynical in making and breaking alliances. While it has accepted into the fold old allies like the JD(U) and the TDP, it has dropped allies when they ceased to be of value. The JJP is also typically facing a split, an effect that an embrace with BJP has had for many other parties, too. The BJP may not have to worry much about its prospects in Haryana for the Lok Sabha elections, but the situation is likely to be different in the Assembly elections. It only secured 22% votes in the last elections but may have the advantage of a divided Opposition this time. Issues like the farmers’ agitation, wrestlers’ protests against sexual harassment, and the Agniveer scheme may find traction in the Assembly elections, if not in the Lok Sabha elections. </p>
