BJP’s South problem: No Dravidian ally

A day after the BJP added the Janata Dal (S) to the rump NDA that it heads, it lost a major ally, the AIADMK, in Tamil Nadu. The AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami announced the end of the relationship with the BJP which had undergone many changes since the death of former Chief Minister J Jayalalitha. The alliance had benefited both parties in some ways through the years. The BJP wanted a partner in Tamil Nadu, where it had no base. The partnership helped the AIADMK when it was struggling with leadership and organisational problems after Jayalalitha’s death. But now that Edappadi Palaniswami has emerged as the leader, the party would not need the BJP as much as it did. The association with the BJP may actually turn out to be a liability for the party in Dravidian country. It could be politically damaging and electorally unhelpful. The party may have also feared loss of its own following to the BJP. 

The recent controversy over Sanatan Dharma highlighted the AIADMK’s difficult position. While the BJP leadership went all out against Udhayanidhi Stalin’s criticism of Sanatana Dharma, the AIADMK criticised the junior Stalin but not his comment. It was also feeling increasingly uneasy with the style and conduct of the BJP’s belligerent state leader K Annamalai, who had recently made uncharitable remarks about the Dravidian patriarch C N Annadurai and about J Jayalalitha. It was perhaps Annamalai’s intention to force the AIADMK out of the alliance and to build the party independently in the state. It should be noted that the AIADMK did not have any complaints about the BJP’s central leadership. But the central leadership seems to have opted for Annamalai instead of Anna DMK, and the state leader’s long-term plans instead of immediate electoral gains. 

The BJP had given special attention to Tamil Nadu with programmes like the Kashi Tamil Sangamam, the controversial propping up of the Sengol idea, and even talk about Prime Minister Narendra Modi contesting from a seat in the state. It cannot think of making electoral gains in the state now with the AIADMK out of the alliance, if the parting of ways is final. The party will find the entire South, the country’s more progressive and economically better part, electorally most challenging and unresponsive, even with the alliance with the JD(S) in Karnataka. The AIADMK will hope to perform better without the political and ideological baggage of the BJP weighing it down, though it is aiming for the 2026 Assembly election more than the 2024 Lok Sabha contest. The AIADMK-BJP split may work to the advantage of the DMK-led alliance as there will be a three-cornered contest in the state now.