France shows the way for progressives
The French parliamentary election has brought about an unusual result for that country, but the outcome of this fascinating three-way drama in two acts revives the hope that the lurch to the Right the world over is not inevitable, especially when it is thwarted by a combination of smart politics and determined voters.
When President Emmanuel Macron called an early parliamentary election, he had hoped for a renewed mandate for the centrist Ensemble, led by his Renaissance party, after the sweep by the far-Right National Rally (RN) in the European Parliament elections in early June. The snap election turned out to be a suicidal miscalculation. Every opinion poll showed the RN, de facto led by Marine Le Pen, ahead in the race.
As France faced up to its first Right-nationalist-populist government in eight decades since World War II, the country made an extraordinary and inspiring rearguard move to thwart this likelihood. A new coalition of far-Left parties, called the New Popular Front, came together with the only aim of stopping the RN's likely victory, and it succeeded, and exceeding its own expectations, emerged as the single largest party.
But it was a hard-fought effort. In the first round of balloting on June 30, the lead taken by the RN indicated that it was all but over for French universalism. It became apparent that in 501 of the 577 constituencies, where a second round run-off would be held as no candidate had won the required simple majority of votes, the RN was poised to win three-way contests in most.
The decision then by the centrists and the NPF to withdraw candidates in over 200 constituencies was a textbook lesson in tactical electioneering. In the final count, Macron's party was second, and the RN was third in a hung parliament.
France has a powerful executive presidency, but a fractured verdict at a time of economic woes, a grinding, stalemated war in Europe and Israel's war on Gaza, will deprive Macron of a pliant parliament. The ideological polarisation will make government formation an uphill task. France's political instability would be a cause of concern across Europe, all the more due to the possibility of a NATO-bashing Donald Trump' returning to the White House.
Still, the spectacular effort to defeat a party that espouses narrow nationalism is a textbook lesson for progressives everywhere in reclaiming lost ground. For sure, the French Right has emerged stronger than it was, with more seats in this election. But whatever the makeover Le Pen or her successor, the 28-year-old half-Italian Jordan Bardella, might have given the RN, not enough French voters were convinced that it had the best credentials to lead the country.
As in Britain, where the far-Right Reform UK polled an incredibly large percentage of votes despite the Labour sweep of seats, the fight between the Right and Left is set to continue, and will likely get fiercer. In France, as in the UK, what is important is that progressive forces have the opportunity for political consolidation at a critical time. They should not squander it away.