Haryana loss does not augur well for Congress

Congress has been dealt a severe blow in Haryana, where it had expected to win handsomely, and its victory in J&K, which is mainly on account of its alliance with the National Conference (NC), will not compensate for the defeat in Haryana.

The results of the Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections are a mixed fare for the main contestants -- the BJP and the I.N.D.I.A grouping. While the BJP did remarkably well by retaining power in Haryana against heavy odds, it fell short in Jammu & Kashmir.

The election has dealt a severe blow to the Congress in Haryana, where it had expected to win handsomely, and its victory in J&K, which is mainly on account of its alliance with the National Conference (NC), will not compensate for the defeat in Haryana. Both Haryana and J&K have Assemblies of equal strength but the defeat in Haryana has a much greater import than a win in J&K. It calls into question the Congress party’s presumed comeback in states where it had declined and at the national level. 

The BJP did spectacularly well to come back to power in Haryana after 10 years of incumbency there. It is not easy to beat the anti-incumbency sentiment of such a long tenure in office and win an election for the third time. The party did not have a majority in the last Assembly but it is now headed towards securing a majority of its own, and has increased its vote share.

The Congress has increased its vote share by a larger extent, indicating the anti-incumbency sentiment on the ground, but its seats saw only a small uptick. Though it appears that the votes of parties such as Dushyant Chautala’s JJP shifted to the Congress, it was not enough to take the party to the winning line. Various explanations may be given about the BJP’s victory, such as its micromanagement of elections, countering the anti-incumbency sentiment through various tactics, its ability to retain its base, focus on local issues, and change of Chief Minister.

A victory is a victory, and the BJP in Haryana has shown that it can win an election without what is called the Narendra Modi ‘magic’. The Congress has to ponder over what made it lose an election that the party and others thought it would win -- factionalism, poor electoral tactics, or other factors. The outcome in Haryana will cast a shadow on Assembly elections due in Maharashtra and Jharkhand in the coming weeks and on politics at the national level. That will not be to the advantage of the Opposition. 

The National Conference is the real winner in J&K. Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP has been almost wiped out and the BJP’s electoral plans did not work as it hoped. Its plan to form a government with the help of nominated members in the eventuality of a hung House has come to nought with the NC getting a clear majority.

But the government will be a lesser government, with most powers being vested with the Lieutenant-Governor. The politics will also be different. The positive is that an election was held in J&K with a high level of participation by the people, and that is good augury.