Hasina’s exit signals tough days for India

Sheikh Hasina's flight from Bangladesh brings to a sorry end a half century in Bangladesh's history, starting from its 1971 liberation from Pakistan. Hasina is the daughter of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led the freedom struggle.

She inherited the leadership of her father's Awami League some years after his assassination in 1975 and, with it, his political proximity to India. By 2008, after winning a landslide majority in the parliamentary elections, she went on to win three more elections. But there was a problem. Except perhaps the one beginning 2008, each of her successive terms was won in a vote tainted by actions taken to dismantle the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Each reelection proved that Hasina was out of touch with the political mood against her.

After she was elected for a fourth term earlier this year, a move to restore nearly 50 per cent of quota in jobs and education for families of freedom fighters brought students out on the streets to protest against what they saw as a move to benefit Awami League families at the expense of others.

A peaceful protest by students turned violent when force was used to suppress it, and the Awami League unleashed its student wing on the protesters. By August 5, the death count was nearly 400. No democratic leader can hope to survive politically after ordering a bloodbath of that magnitude. Hasina had no option but to step down and flee when the army refused to use any more force, reportedly much to her shock and anger.

Her choice of India as the first destination was dictated both by logistics as well as her proximity to the Indian leadership. It also framed India's new challenge in a tough neighbourhood. As long as Hasina was in the driving seat, New Delhi was confident that she would give no space to forces inimical to India to use Bangladesh territory to destabilise India.

She cracked down on jihadist groups with alleged links to Pakistan and even banned the Jamaat-i-Islami. Despite signing on the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and fostering economic relations with Beijing, Hasina was aware of New Delhi's defence sensitivities and ensured that she was never once described in India as ‘pro-China’.

Her departure creates a huge security vacuum for New Delhi. The army has taken charge and is reported to be in the process of setting up an interim government that could be headed by Grameen Bank founder Muhammad Yunus.

An election, whenever it is held, is sure to bring back the Khaleda Zia-led BNP, which, with its caboodle of Islamist allies, presided over the lowest phase in India-Bangladesh ties when it was in office from 1999 to 2004. India now has the difficult task of reaching out to those in charge of Bangladesh and dispelling the notion that it cannot do business with anyone other than Hasina. It must also be prepared to deal with a backlash by anti-Hasina forces.