Political instability resurfaces in Nepal

Political stability is no longer Nepal’s greatest asset. The swearing-in of K P Sharma Oli as the new prime minister highlights the political instability plaguing the country ever since it became a republic. His appointment became inevitable on July 12 when then-prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda, leader of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC), secured only 63 votes in a house of 275. He was abandoned by Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), with whose support he had been ruling. Unknown to Prachanda, Oli had aligned with Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress before pulling the rug from under Prachanda's feet. President Ram Chandra Paudel was presented with 165 signatures of MPs by Oli when he staked his claim to form a government. Oli’s party has 77 members, while the Nepali Congress has 88. Together, he has the support of more than 138 members, the minimum necessary to form a government.

Significantly, Oli’s party is in a minority in the coalition. This in itself is a sign of the weakness of the new government. There is an understanding between the two parties that they will share the prime ministership equally until elections are held in 2027. However, in politics, such understandings do not mean much. When his term is done, it is not certain Oli will vacate the seat for Deuba, who is equally ambitious. Since the two parties do not have much in common ideologically, there is no guarantee that there will be enough glue to keep them together. This is the fourth time Oli has become prime minister. He is yet to prove that he is capable of following coalition dharma to complete his term. For now, he must prove his majority in parliament within two months.

India has reason to be concerned about Oli's ascension to power. Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi has extended his greetings to Oli, it is well-known that Oli is closer to China than India. He has campaigned against India’s policy towards Nepal, projecting India as an irksome big brother intent on dominating the region. During his premiership, he did a lot to create divisions between the two nations. Suddenly, in 2020, he made a geographical claim that was as unexpected as it was baseless. One redeeming feature is that Oli heads a coalition government in which the larger party, the Nepali Congress, has a long history of collaborating with India. When the party was harassed by the King, its leaders, especially those belonging to the Koirala family, sought sanctuary in India. It understands better the need for strong India-Nepal relations.