Dangerous balloons in US-China face-off

In a little more than a week, the US Air Force has shot down four suspicious objects flying over North American airspace. The first, which was a balloon flying at an altitude of around 60,000 ft, was shot down off the coast of South Carolina. The three other flying objects that were subsequently shot down over Alaska, Montana and Michigan have been described as “flying objects, not balloons,” as US officials are yet to figure out what these were and where they came from.

The three objects, flying at altitudes of about 20,000 feet, were shot down as they posed a threat to civilian aircraft. Investigations are on to identify the objects, their origins, and their purpose. Meanwhile, a US-China war of words has erupted. Washington set it off by accusing China of sending the surveillance balloon over US airspace. China not only shot down that claim but also has subsequently accused the US of “illegally” flying spy balloons into its airspace more than 10 times since January 2022.

It has said that it is “preparing to shoot down” an “unidentified flying object” above the port city of Rizhao. A war of words amid fraying Sino-American relations is itself worrying. That the US and China are now shooting down what are likely each other’s spy balloons is even more alarming. This could escalate.

Read | Does China have a spy balloon strategy?

At the height of the Cold War, 34 countries signed on to an Open Skies Treaty that allowed them to surveil each other from the skies by flying unarmed aircraft with cameras and other sensors. The aim was to foster transparency and prevent misunderstandings and escalation of tensions between the Superpowers – the US and the Soviet Union -- in the age of nuclear weapons. It helped keep the tenuous peace of the Cold War as it allowed both sides to gauge capabilities, deployments and intentions. However, in an unwise move, former US President Donald Trump withdrew America from the Treaty in 2020. Russia followed suit. The current escalation of tensions between the US and China over aerial surveillance underscores the need for a new version of the Open Skies Treaty for an age of intensified space-based, high-altitude and drone-based surveillance.

Spying using balloons may seem outdated considering that we now have advanced satellites that can conduct surveillance from space. But surveillance balloons are cheaper and hard to spot and can provide data that satellites cannot as they can hover over a military site for longer periods. There are reports that surveillance balloons have been spotted over the Andaman Islands in the past. India must therefore step up its vigil over its skies.