<p>The surge in Covid cases in Kerala, which is now leading the country in the number of daily infections and total cases, has caused concern while the pandemic situation is easing in other parts of the country. The state witnessed over 22,000 fresh cases every day in the last few days with a total positivity rate of 13.53%. The number of active cases is more than 35% of the national case load. A central team has visited the state to assess the situation. During the first wave of the pandemic, Kerala had managed to keep it in check and the state’s Covid management under the then heath minister K K Shailaja had attracted international attention. But now questions are being raised about the success of the Kerala model.</p>.<p>The questions have centred around the low sero prevalence in the state and the debatable testing and lockdown strategies followed by the government. The latest national sero survey showed that the state has the lowest zero prevalence rate of 44% in the country. This means that 66% of the population is still vulnerable. The state does targeted testing of people in the circle of contact of infected persons, and the authorities claim that this would naturally lead to a higher positivity rate. It also has a high rate of tests per million. Its lockdown strategy of total shutdowns on weekends and fewer days and hours of relaxation has been criticised as it causes crowding of people. The lockdown relaxations for Bakrid and darshan at Sabarimala were seen as a surrender to pressures of various kinds and invited censure from the Supreme Court.</p>.<p>Though the lockdown relaxations may be a factor, the high infection rate in the state is ironically the price it is paying for its success in controlling the pandemic during the first wave. It kept infections within limits then and did not allow them to go beyond the point where the healthcare system could not manage it. All patients who needed treatment got it and there was no shortage of ICUs or oxygen. The death rate was and still is the lowest in the country. The state has said that its strategy was to keep the numbers from rising and so a large segment of the population remains vulnerable. The vaccination rate is among the highest in the country. The high population density makes for quick spread of the disease. But the state government and many experts are of the view that its strategy is right and the state is still in the late stage of the second wave which started late. The situation is not good, but it may be too early to decide whether the strategy is a success or failure. </p>
<p>The surge in Covid cases in Kerala, which is now leading the country in the number of daily infections and total cases, has caused concern while the pandemic situation is easing in other parts of the country. The state witnessed over 22,000 fresh cases every day in the last few days with a total positivity rate of 13.53%. The number of active cases is more than 35% of the national case load. A central team has visited the state to assess the situation. During the first wave of the pandemic, Kerala had managed to keep it in check and the state’s Covid management under the then heath minister K K Shailaja had attracted international attention. But now questions are being raised about the success of the Kerala model.</p>.<p>The questions have centred around the low sero prevalence in the state and the debatable testing and lockdown strategies followed by the government. The latest national sero survey showed that the state has the lowest zero prevalence rate of 44% in the country. This means that 66% of the population is still vulnerable. The state does targeted testing of people in the circle of contact of infected persons, and the authorities claim that this would naturally lead to a higher positivity rate. It also has a high rate of tests per million. Its lockdown strategy of total shutdowns on weekends and fewer days and hours of relaxation has been criticised as it causes crowding of people. The lockdown relaxations for Bakrid and darshan at Sabarimala were seen as a surrender to pressures of various kinds and invited censure from the Supreme Court.</p>.<p>Though the lockdown relaxations may be a factor, the high infection rate in the state is ironically the price it is paying for its success in controlling the pandemic during the first wave. It kept infections within limits then and did not allow them to go beyond the point where the healthcare system could not manage it. All patients who needed treatment got it and there was no shortage of ICUs or oxygen. The death rate was and still is the lowest in the country. The state has said that its strategy was to keep the numbers from rising and so a large segment of the population remains vulnerable. The vaccination rate is among the highest in the country. The high population density makes for quick spread of the disease. But the state government and many experts are of the view that its strategy is right and the state is still in the late stage of the second wave which started late. The situation is not good, but it may be too early to decide whether the strategy is a success or failure. </p>