For BJP, Bengal is within reach, and Kerala, Tamil Nadu doors are opening

The Big Lens

The reverberating sounds of electioneering, crowds cheering, the cacophony of campaign and the clouds of dust rising from helipads every time leaders land or take off clearly sets the year 2021 apart from the silent pandemic year that went by. Election results in each one of the four states and one Union Territory will be starkly different from one another, deciding the fate of regional and national parties. But the cumulative effect of these results will have a larger influence on national politics, governance and even India’s regional approach.

For the BJP, Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are extremely important as the doors to the corridors of power in these states are open to it for the first time since Independence, perhaps more so in Bengal than in the other two. Although much less may be at stake in the Union Territory of Pondicherry, being in the driver’s seat there is no less important for the BJP in terms of expanding its footprint nationally. A BJP victory there will put a seal of popular approval on the recent political defections and the consequent dismissal of the Congress government. This was one place where the Congress could have fought back tooth-and-nail and retained its hold, but party seems to have a death wish and determined to vacate its positions to the BJP.

Assam is another state where the Congress had successfully kept the BJP out of power for long. Former Congress chief minister late Tarun Gogoi had a pan-Assam appeal and influence. His image was much larger than that of the family-controlled party high command in Delhi, just like that of the independent-minded Chief Minister of Punjab, Capt. Amarinder Singh, who won not because of the party central leadership but in spite of it. The Congress party, like in Pondicherry, has not been able to come up with a leader, enthuse workers or provide an alternative agenda in Assam. The 26 seats it won in 2016 has since come down to 19, resulting in the party losing the leader of opposition position, which had to be subsequently restored through court intervention.

In 2016, the BJP-Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)-Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) alliance got 126 seats, with about 41.59% vote share. The Congress got 30.96% votes but only 26 seats, while the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which contested separately, won 13.05% of the votes polled and 13 seats. If one were to go by pure arithmetic, the Congress-AIUDF coalition this time is thus entitled to a 44% share. But election victory does not follow from pure arithmetic. The perception of ‘Assam under attack’ by outsiders and minority vote bank can help the BJP retain its hold over the state comfortably.

But merely retaining Assam will not be reason enough for the BJP to rejoice. Its objective is to wrest power from Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal and occupy the seat of power in Kolkata with élan. The BJP’s predecessor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, was founded in Bengal. Its leader, Dr Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, was one of the tallest leaders of the state, a freedom fighter, and laid down his life fighting for the abrogation of Article 370. His other agenda -- protecting the Hindus of Bengal and preserving the unique identity of the state is the BJP’s election plank. The BJP’s strategy is to demolish the image of Bengal as an ‘impenetrable fort’ held by the Left for over three decades and then by the TMC for two terms since 2011. Winning Bengal will therefore be the most colourful feather in the Modi-Shah duo’s cap.

The BJP’s concentration on Bengal has not in any way reduced its focus on the South, on the two important states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Dislodging the Left Democratic Front (LDF) from power in Kerala is high on BJP’s agenda. The overall atmosphere in the state seems to be favourable for the BJP, with the Congress giving the impression of having deserted the electoral battlefield even before the battle has begun. But the BJP will do well not to underestimate the deep roots that the Left parties and leaders have in the state, besides their capacity to forge last-minute alliances and deals with ‘friends’ among the ‘major minorities’ who can easily switch their votes (and loyalties) at a convenient moment. Yet, BJP will clock an important milestone even if it just manages to reach double digits in the Kerala Assembly.

The most interesting of all elections is the one in Tamil Nadu, where the two regional parties, the ruling AIADMK and the Opposition DMK, are entering the fray without their long-standing leaders, without any strong developmental agenda, and without the backing of any silver screen idol this time.

Former CM Jayalalitha’s seat was won by the just-out-of-jail V K Sasikala’s nephew, TTV Dinakaran, who was ousted from the AIADMK and formed his own party, the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazagam (AMMK). It would have been a wise move if the BJP had managed to bring AIADMK and AMMK on one platform and formed a grand anti-DMK alliance. But with these potential allies contesting separately, there will be a three or four-way vote split, which could end up helping the DMK.

While the BJP will probably improve its performance in the state, Tamil Nadu may end up with an unprecedented split verdict. In the event of a fractured mandate, showing up the ruling AIADMK as being a leaderless and directionless party under EPS-OPS (CM Palaniswami and his deputy Pannerselvam), Sasikala, who has announced a temporary withdrawal from electoral politics, could well march into the “Amma Anbu Maaligai” (party headquarters) and take over the party, just in time to celebrate the party’s half-a-century run in 2022.