Gandhinagar results: Ominous national implications for Opposition

Gandhinagar civic poll results have a warning for the Congress and squabbling regional rulers, get together as if your life depends on it, or BJP will string you out to dry separately

Rulers revel in victories while the observant evaluate echoes. Thus, trampled farmers and a bagful of bodies in far-off Uttar Pradesh failed to elicit a reaction from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. But the two were prompt in their praise after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept the Gandhinagar Municipal Corporation elections. The farmers were crushed on October 3; the Gandhinagar poll results came two days later, and Modi and Shah's reactions within hours of it.

A little past with a sprinkling of the present can help decipher a fair amount of the future. It can also provide an insightful window into the thought process of those at the helm in the power pyramid. Gandhinagar, the state capital, has one of the smallest municipal corporations in Gujarat. It was the only state capital without an elected local self-government body until a High Court judgement of 2009 forced the Narendra Modi government in the state to constitute one in 2010.

The Congress won the first civic polls in 2011 with 18 seats to the BJP's 15. But the BJP secured power through the backdoor when three corporators, including the mayor, defected. In 2016, the two principal rivals came up equals with 16 each in a house of 32, though the BJP came to power through a Congress defector who was rewarded with the mayor's post.

The BJP has cause to be happy since it is the first time that it has swept the Gandhinagar civic body outright. It is part of Shah's parliamentary constituency, which party veteran LK Advani represented earlier. The enlarged municipal corporation now has 44 seats. The BJP has bagged 41 of these in a triangular contest leaving the Congress and Aam Admi Party (AAP) to mop up the remaining two and one seats, respectively. The state BJP leadership sees a vindication of the Modi-Shah strategy that dispensed with the entire state cabinet, chief minister Vijay Rupani included, and a similar repeat exercise in the selection of the party's new candidates for the local civic body polls. State BJP president C.R. Patil said, "Not repeating candidates has worked for us."

The devil, however, lies in the detail. Gandhinagar has 2,81,898 voters, of which 1,58,532 cast their votes, making for the 56.24 per cent voting. In terms of percentage, the BJP got 46.49, the Congress 28.02 and AAP 21.77. Thus, the Congress-AAP combined vote share was 49.79 per cent to the BJP's 46.49.

The BJP is happy it won a steamroller victory. The AAP takes solace that it was second in 16 of the 44 seats, and the Congress stamps AAP as the 'B' team of the BJP, which has divided opposition votes. From the voters perspective, it twice voted Congress, and that party's candidates fell pray to blandishments betraying the mandate, so it punished them. The fact is that the entire opposition here now constitutes just an auto-rickshaw load.

The results of a minuscule municipal corporation would not merit a national political interpretation were it not for the timing and the reaction of the duo that rules India and its implications for the rest.

Also read: Municipal polls: 'Gujarat stands firmly with PM Modi'; CM thanks citizens

As things stand in the BJP, Modi is both the party and the government. And after this, he now firmly believes that the paint job of replacing entire cabinets, including the chief minister with a new set of fresh faces, papers over the inherent inadequacies, poor governance and beats anti-incumbency of an almost whole term. And the BJP has been in power in Gujarat for over a quarter-century, barring a 17-month break when the Congress piggybacked on rebel Shankersinh Vaghela's regional outfit.

This poll also confirms that whitewash works even at the grassroots level. So one can expect liberal doses of this cosmetic treatment in the other poll-bound states, principally Haryana and Madhya Pradesh. However, Uttar Pradesh under Yogi Adityanath remains impervious to change and is paying the price for it. Six chief ministers in five states have been changed over six months, with the Congress also joining the bandwagon in Punjab lately.

Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and West Bengal elected new governments in 2021, and seven other states are gearing up for elections in 2022. These are Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa earlier, and Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh in the latter part of the year.

One of the immediate implications of the tiny Gandhinagar civic poll results is the renewed confidence that cosmetics work, leading to the BJP giving serious consideration to moving the ensuing Gujarat Assembly elections alongside that of UP. This will divide Congress and AAP's attention and handicap the two principal opponents and their leaders in terms of logistics, human and material resources to benefit the BJP.

The BJP is glowing with glee at the results in Gujarat and will mark it out for nationwide replication in the ensuing elections. In Surat, considered the state's commercial capital, civic polls held in February this year had thrown up unexpected results. The BJP bagged 93 of the 120 seats, with the AAP picking up 27 and the Congress getting wiped out.

It was then considered a fluke but is now a phenomenon after the Gandhinagar results. The AAP has grievously wounded the Congress by picking up 21 per cent of votes. And therein lies a warning and a piece of advice for the Congress and the squabbling regional rulers vying to impress their footprints in each others' strongholds. Get your combined act together, as if your life depends on it. If you fail to unite, the BJP (read Modi) will string you out to dry separately.

(The writer is an Ahmedabad-based veteran journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the authors’ own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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