In Gujarat, Congress looks for a repeat of 2017

As Rahul Gandhi lands in Gujarat today, the question is whether the party can attain even its 2017 assembly election tally with the fight now triangular

The worm has turned. Long at the receiving end of pack hunter pummelling, including from its own, the Congress is waking up to the reality of the hard slog ahead as Gujarat gets set for the all-important battle of the ballot slated for December this year.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have bridged the Delhi-Ahmedabad distance to frequent flyer standards and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal into a virtual weekend home, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's visits to Gujarat have been comparatively few and far between. This has led to a public perception that the party's efforts, plagued by internal dissensions, have fallen victim to self-seekers' sloth.

"The BJP is a perennial presence outside the Congress kitchen, rummaging the bin to pick up stale leftovers of the previous night's meals. We need to clean and cull more frequently to ensure the stink does not spread," observed a young, upcoming Congress youth leader from the state, adding that the laid-back attitude in axing antiquated power guzzlers demoralises the diligent. "We should take a cue from our famous adversary who sacks entire cabinets to save his governments and poaches shamelessly to weaken rivals." The unambiguous reference is to the likes of Ghulam Nabi Azad and Hardik Patel, as well as Ashwin Kotwal, nearer home or the unceremonious ouster of the entire Vijay Rupani cabinet last year. The three were among the Congress quitters this year, two of whom have joined the BJP and the third awaits an understanding.

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Like it or lump it, Rahul Gandhi still remains a stellar attraction, for it will be difficult to gather half the crowd that the Nehru-Gandhi family scion/family collects at a public meeting. None of the old guards who enjoyed a lifetime in power and have turned into rebels -the so-called G-23 - have even a fraction of the public pull, point out Congress leaders in Gujarat. Rahul had organised the very successful Ahmedabad to Bardoli 'Vikas Khoj Yatra by the Youth Congress in January-February 2014, himself walking the last leg before addressing a public meeting at its culmination in the town made famous by the Bardoli Satyagraha launched by Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel in 1928. The Rahul Gandhi-led Kanyakumari-Kashmir 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' beginning September 7 will give election-bound Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh a miss. Gujarat Congress spokesperson Dr Manish Doshi said this was being done to prevent a diversion of the state party election machinery.

Two days before he embarks on the 3570 km long padayatra, Rahul will launch his party's election campaign for the state in Ahmedabad on September 5. Party general secretary K C Venugopal was in Ahmedabad on August 24 to review the preparedness with state leaders and senior observer Ashok Gehlot and Gujarat in-charge Raghu Sharma. Rahul last visited Gujarat for a tribal rally on May 10, but his further visits were cancelled following the Enforcement Directorate summons to him and Sonia Gandhi in the National Herald case.

While the first list of the party nominees for the Gujarat polls is expected to be released before mid-September, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has already released two lists carrying 19 names. The Congress, on its part, has named seven working presidents and appointed in-charges from Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh to oversee each of the 26 parliamentary constituencies in the state and four other leaders to assist Sharma with Gehlot overseeing things. The Rajasthan chief minister was the Gujarat in-charge in the 2017 state assembly elections and is well conversant with make-or-break nuances.

According to present Gujarat in-charge Raghu Sharma, the Congress is targeting 125 of the total 182 seats and does not propose to announce a chief ministerial candidate. "We shall fight collectively," he adds. Party national spokesperson Shaktisinh Gohil who hails from Gujarat, holds firm that the main contest is between the two traditional combatants, and AAP will not add up to much because a third party has never succeeded in Gujarat. Gohil has a point since such veteran leaders like Chimanbhai Patel (Kisan Mazdoor Lok Paksha), Shankersinh Vaghela (Rashtriya Janata Party), Jan Vikalp and this time, the Prajashakti Democratic Party) and veteran late Keshubhai Patel (Gujarat Parivartan Party) have all come a cropper.

However, the AAP's aggressive forays, and the response it is beginning to elicit, seem to be making enough dent for the BJP to take the threat seriously. Ruling party insiders in Ahmedabad concede that with the AAP mirroring their own strategies, they are stuck for a counter. "We shall evolve a response but are not unduly worried, for, in the final reckoning, we have Narendrabhai as the ace. His last-minute appeal to the voter always works," comes the reply.

Sheer bravado or solid belief, the BJP in Gujarat has been on overdrive with Modi breathing down their neck. The PM has been personally overseeing things. Immediately on landing in Ahmedabad on August 27, the PM went into a huddle with the chief minister, chief secretary, home and revenue ministers of state, state party chief and key officials at the airport itself. This schedule included presentations on the PM's pet projects and department-wise presentations. Immediately after, he was locked in closed-door meetings with the chief minister and party functionaries and, thereafter, an hour-long meeting with the CM and K Kailashnathan, where he was updated on the election scenario in the state. Kailashnathan is the chief principal secretary to the chief minister but is the key pointsman between the Gujarat government and the PMO. Only after these extended engagements at the airport did the PM leave for the day's public functions. The next day the PM detoured from his official schedule and spent two hours at the state party headquarters guiding the election core committee members on the next 60 days' work schedule. Days earlier, under instructions from Delhi, two cabinet ministers, Rajendra Trivedi and Purnesh Modi, were divested of the key portfolios of revenue and road and buildings, respectively. Reports have it that even Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel was caught unawares over instructions to this end. "The PM is absolutely hands-on even in overseeing the election and related affairs in the state," said a BJP source in the know of things.

While Kejriwal and his team are equally hands-on in combating the BJP, it is also at pains asking voters not to waste their votes on the Congress. In fact, the AAP cadres have been telling voters in Saurashtra villages that their votes spent on electing Congress leaders get wasted as they get lured into the BJP. "Try us this time. We won't betray you," they assure. How much it works remains to be seen, but it sure is creating a buzz.

The main reason for both the BJP and the AAP targeting the Congress is that the principal Opposition party had picked up 30 of the total 54 seats in the Saurashtra-Kutch region helping it bag a creditable 78 seats while bringing the BJP to 99 seats in a 182 member House, the lowest after Modi took over as chief minister in 2001. In 2012 the BJP had bagged 35 seats in Saurashtra-Kutch but was down to 23 in 2017, with one going to others. Agrarian strife still blights life in this region, but whether the opposition votes get divided and benefit the BJP or are shared between the Congress and AAP shall become clearer as the poll match goes into the slog overs. In north Gujarat, both the BJP and Congress had maintained their previous seat share in 2017 with 32 and 21 seats, respectively. In south Gujarat, the BJP had faced a marginal loss winning 25 of 35 seats compared to 28 in 2012, while the Congress improved its seat share from 6 to 10. In central Gujarat, the BJP scored with 25 of 40 seats while the Congress was down by 5 to 13 seats in 2017. The last elections were held in the shadow of the Patidar unrest, and the Congress had emerged as a beneficiary at the polls. This factor does not seem to be at play in 2022, but rising prices and agrarian dissatisfaction is evident in rural areas, which the BJP is hopeful of levelling up with what it sees as its urban popularity.

The Congress, on its part, has unfolded its list of electorally promised freebies. Free medical treatment up to Rs 10 lakh in government and private hospitals with free organ transplants thrown in alongside elimination of contract system for doctors and para-medical staff, Rs 3000 in the bank account of every girl every month and a deposit of Rs 30 lakh when she attains puberty. There may be more additions to the list. How much of this works remains to be seen, but the Congress will need to strain a lot harder to achieve its previous tally as the fight has turned triangular this time.

(R K Misra is a senior journalist based in Ahmedabad)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.