The war in Ukraine: Where is it heading?

In perspective

The war in Ukraine has entered its second year. And we don’t know when or on whose terms it will end. The likelihood of its continuance can be understood from the statement made by US President Joe Biden during his surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kiev. He reaffirmed the American commitment “to stand firmly by the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, whatever it takes.” Biden warned Russia that the US and NATO would remain firmly committed to Ukraine’s defence.

One year of the war makes it clear that Putin underestimated the strength of the Ukrainian people under Zelenskyy to defend themselves against the Russian onslaught. Putin also misjudged the extent of western support for Ukraine. He probably thought that he could successfully carry out a swift military victory over Ukraine and perhaps even bring about a regime change by installing a pro-Russian (and pro-Putin) general in office. But all that failed. During the last year, Ukrainians have fought back against the Russians with vigour, armed with Western weapons. Without going into the details of Russia’s territorial annexation and control, or loss of control, over them, it can be surmised that the war is not proceeding on Putin’s terms.

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It is noteworthy that Biden’s surprise visit to Kiev has raised a host of questions meriting analysis. Some of the most important of them are:

1) Will Biden’s visit to Ukraine trigger a greater Russian offensive, and if so, what consequences will it have for Ukraine’s infrastructure? According to some American estimates, 100,000 people (including soldiers) have died on both sides. If this is true, the war has cost Ukraine dearly in terms of human and other losses. This is where we need to remember Henry Kissinger’s call in his speech in Davos last summer for diplomatic efforts to end the war before the onset of winter. Alas, it fell on deaf ears of the western and Ukrainian leaders. Kissinger’s suggestion for some territorial concessions by Ukraine to Russia, which was realistic, surely angered them, consumed as they were in their determination to defeat Russia in the war.

2) Will Biden’s Kiev visit lead to a greater supply of weapons by NATO allies to Ukraine? There are reports that some of America’s allies are unwilling to supply arms and economic assistance to Ukraine for a prolonged period, given their own economic vulnerabilities in the wake of the recession. It is likely that the US will be the major supplier of weapons, with Ukraine clamouring for stinger missiles, F-16s, etc.

3) What impact will Biden’s renewed support for Ukraine have on Putin, who might use the situation to inflict greater damage on Ukraine? In his State of the Nation address, Putin accused the West of starting the war and forcing Moscow to respond to it. He has suspended Russia’s participation in the START Treaty.

4) What possible impact will Biden’s renewal of support for Ukraine have on the position of the Chinese on the war? Will China supply weapons to Russia or, as its ambassador has stated, work to find ways to end the conflict?

4) Will the Central European nations be in a position to bear the negative consequences of the prolonged war on their domestic situation?

5) Zelenskyy and Biden have talked of winning the war over Russia as their ultimate objective during the latter’s Kiev visit. What will victory over Russia mean—driving Russian forces out of the areas captured by them during the war? It’s easier said
than done.

6) More importantly, we do not know what Putin is thinking about the future course of the ongoing war. Will he resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons if driven to the wall, and what would be the consequences for the war and European security? It is reasonable to assume that with the winter ending soon, the Ukrainian war might slip into a prolonged low-key conflict with no decisive outcome at the war front.

Finally, as history has shown, all wars come to an end at the diplomatic table. The war in Ukraine will probably be no exception to it. There are calls for Indian mediation as Chairman of the G-20 Group. While India has been pleading for a peaceful solution to the conflict at the UN and other forums right from the start of the war, in reality it has had no fruitful experience mediating between two combating nations, especially in a situation like the one where Russia is a party to the war. Preserving the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and addressing the security concerns of Russia should be the overarching framework within which diplomatic negotiations between Ukraine and Russia should be facilitated by India.

(The writer is a former professor of political science at Bangalore University)