In Sri Lanka, fears of a vicious crackdown

Escalation of violence could have Beijing intervene under the pretext of protecting huge Chinese investments and also its workers and their families

The problems for Sri Lanka began long ago. It all started with the British bequeathing the island to the majority Sinhala rulers when they left in February 1948 without ensuring a fair level of socio-political space for the Tamils. Despite the country remaining a dominion of the British Empire until 1972, London did little to redeem its sinful flaw even as the Tamils repeatedly wailed and agitated about their cruel discrimination at the hands of the new rulers.

Successive Sinhala regimes thrived on devising fresh violations of the human rights of minorities and the denial of education and employment opportunities. Each Sinhala political leader tried their best to 'better' the rival in the contest for power by promising he (she) would bury the Tamil deeper.

It will certainly be a waste of the reader's time if I recall all those incidents and events relating to this Tamil conflict; better to fast-forward to the present day. Only, there is no Tamil element to the current tragedy, authored by the Rajapaksa brothers and enveloping the entire island. While the last chapter is still several pages away on the calendar, the latest climax in the many swings of fate and fortune has seen the ignominious exit of the Rajapaksa family from the seat of power—actually running for life with angry protesters nipping at their bolting bulks.

Elder brother Mahinda had fled in early May, even as the agitators were preparing to storm his bungalow and torch his fancy cars—they were all his ardent fans when he vanquished the Tamil Tigers in May 2009—the controversial Gotabaya hopped onto a military jet with wife and two staffers to land in the Maldives to escape from the growing ferocity of the agitation that spread from the picturesque Galle Face beach to the President's house, Parliament and the office of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.

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Last heard, Gota took a Saudi Airlines plane out of Male to land in Singapore and, from there, plans to move on to Saudi Arabia. Unlike Mahinda, who resigned as prime minister to facilitate the swearing-in of Ranil Wickremesinghe as successor in the hope that the Rajapaksas could remote-control him since he is the lone representative of his party in Parliament, Gotabaya has not obliged the protesters on the streets and the political rivals in Parliament demanding his resignation.

Instead, he signed a communication just before fleeing the island stating that he was unable to carry out his functions as the President for now and also authorising Ranil to act as the President until his return. It becomes necessary for him to hold on to his position as the Executive President to continue to enjoy the military's protection and its resources. "Perhaps he will send in his resignation after finally landing at a destination that guarantees safe refuge," a senior editor in Colombo told me on the phone.

Parliament Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena had given Gota an ultimatum to send his resignation quickly and set July 20 as the date for Parliament to elect a new president.

The British Parliament held an urgent session on Sri Lanka on Thursday, where the leader of Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey, demanded that the UK work with the international partners to issue an arrest warrant on Gotabaya.

As the protests turned more violent, Ranil declared an Emergency on the island and told the military on Wednesday to "do whatever is necessary to restore order"—a very strange and sad order coming from the CEO of the country on fire.

By then, the protesters had got into the Parliament building as well, assaulted a few military personnel, snatched a couple of rifles and swore they would continue their battle. Several men and women were injured in that violence, and one died in hospital due to breathing complications.

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On the same day, a meeting of all the opposition parties demanded that Ranil should quit office at once—he had announced on Saturday that he was "willing to resign" to pave the way for a National Government led by someone who enjoyed Parliament's support and even asked the Speaker to nominate a new prime minister.

And finally, on Thursday, Ranil delivered his brahmastra, asking the Opposition to produce its PM candidate enjoying the support of 113 members (in a Parliament of 225 MPs), and he would step aside forthwith. The old warhorse knew there was none qualifying.

Information trickling in from Colombo says that if the Opposition fails to produce its PM choice within the next couple of days, Ranil is most likely to revoke Parliament for three months, appoint Leader of the House Dinesh Gunawardena as the prime minister while continuing as President himself. Dinesh is the head of the left-wing Mahajana Eksath Peramuna and does not have many enemies, even among the rival ranks.

Former Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, an affable elder politician, is another strong contender to be the PM; his tweets hailing the protesters as harbingers of positive change in the country hitherto riddled with despotism and corruption have gained popularity. "Peaceful protests are on the rise. This has been the best and most effective way for people to express their voices against the regime. Protests must not be disrupted. People's right to freedom of expression is fundamental. Let there be no violence. Power to the peaceful protests!" Karu had tweeted a few days ago.

Friends in Colombo say they are worried that the military, 'somewhat restrained so far', might turn aggressive and launch attacks on the protesters leading to bloodshed. Some say that the military and the police might have feigned the attacks on them to besmirch the 'peaceful protesters'. Some others insist that the protests are themselves gravitating towards violence and appear to be slipping into the control of ultra-left elements under the guise of the university student unions.

"There is talk that the military intelligence reported the possibility of attacks by the protesting youth on Parliament and also on the residences of the three chiefs of armed forces. Now there is fear that the army could get really tough," said the editor I spoke to over the phone.

With the situation seeming to spiral out of control, Karu Jayasuriya's latest tweet reflected the strain on all nerves. As tensions escalate, Parliament and political party leaders must rise to the moment and reach a consensus, reflecting public demands. No violence should be unleashed in the protests, and all sides must practice restraint. Sri Lanka wants neither anarchy nor despotism," said the elderly Sinhala leader.

Well, that's what the political leaders - Tamils included—and the angry protesters on the Colombo streets must quickly do. At the same time, there is huge work for the international community too, particularly for Delhi, which cannot afford to let its southern neighbour, barely 30 minutes away by a fisherman's boat, continue to burn.

Escalation of violence on the island has an additional danger in that it could bring in the Dragon under the pretext of protecting the huge Chinese investments and also its workers and their families. Apart from his arrest warrant prescription, Ed Davey has made out in the British Parliament the best possible crisis response in Sri Lanka—calling upon the UK to "work with the international partners for a full economic and political solution to support the democrats in Sri Lanka." An economic package with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others to provide immediate support, as well as a political package that includes "an international arrest warrant" on Gotabaya Rajapaksa and "his cronies".

India has an additional factor to key into this scheme: ensure that the successor regime in Colombo has a pro-Delhi CEO who will also take the Tamils on board; this must ensure political and economic stability on a fast track and a firm-lasting ground. And a requiem for the British tragedy of 1948.

(R Bhagwan Singh is a senior journalist based in Chennai, writing on Sri Lanka since the 1980s)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH