The tragedy of being a great power

India’s neighbours feel overwhelmed by the power asymmetry in all spheres, and feel that the further they are from India, the more they will be able to assert their separate identities.

It is a truism in international relations that great powers are rarely loved if ever, in their neighbourhoods, particularly if the neighbours are smaller. As one watches the latest tensions between India and one of its smaller neighbours, the Maldives, one cannot help but wonder if this is more a structural problem or the result of badly managed foreign policies.

Even as the pro-China, Islamist Mohamed Muizzu was predicted to win the elections in September, it was widely speculated in the Indian media that he would take an anti-India stance. Indeed, he won on an ‘India-Out’ campaign. But the depths to which the relationship would sink was a surprise though the writing was on the cards when Muizzu made his first trip as President to Turkey, instead of the traditional visit to India.

This was followed by the Maldives cancelling the water survey agreement signed in 2019 with India, which called for co-operation in the field of hydrology. The distasteful statements made by Muizzu’s deputy ministers about India and its Prime Minister are surely a low for relations between the two countries. While the deputy ministers were suspended, it did little to reduce tensions. Muizzu’s statements shortly after his five-day visit to China only served to escalate tensions between New Delhi and Male. His rather belligerent deadline for India to withdraw its ‘troops’ by March 15, nearly two months after he had asked for their removal, and the assertion that the Maldives will not be bullied point to some emboldening or nudging from China.

The Maldivian government’s statement on the Taiwanese elections at the end of Muizzu’s China visit reflects Beijing’s increasing influence in Male. Muizzu’s stance against India might also have to do with the elections to the Maldivian Mjalis in March.

This episode in India’s ties with its neighbours is only the latest in a history of less-than-cordial relations with most of its neighbours. India’s neighbours feel overwhelmed by the power asymmetry in all spheres: economic, political, cultural, and military. So, they feel that the further they are from India, the more they will be able to assert their separate identities.

Of course, these neighbours turning their backs on India is sweetened by the opportunity they have in an ever-willing China which is ready to dole out loans and build infrastructure. There is not much India can do in this situation other than engage all political stakeholders in the country and the larger neighbourhood so that escalations of this sort do not occur again. But again, as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said, there is no guarantee that “in every country, every day, everybody will support us or agree with us”. Foreign policy is, after all, not a popularity contest.

Who loses in this escalation of tensions? The tourism-dependent Maldivian economy will suffer as there is already a strong ‘Boycott Maldives’ campaign in India. Indians are cancelling their holidays in the Maldives. Though Muizzu has discussed measures to increase the number of Chinese tourists to the country, this will take time.

Moreover, the Maldives is dependent on India for food imports and healthcare. Muizzu has announced plans to reduce dependence on India in these sectors. But given transportation costs, this will be much more expensive. Given the Maldives’ susceptibility to rising sea levels, as the closest neighbour, whether India would be welcoming of climate refugees from the Maldives in the future if it is seen to be anti-India is a moot point.

What the Maldivian government is doing now could be interpreted as an assertion of freedom of action by a small state. It reflects the fact that small states become influential when there is great power competition, as great powers search for and woo new allies. However, the problem for the Maldives is that it has short-sighted leaders who have forgotten that while they may temporarily gain influence with China in the competition between Beijing and New Delhi, in the long run, hostile relations with India will lead to the loss of not only tourist inflow from India, but also its security. India has been the first responder in several of its crises in the past.

Maldivian leaders, who eye domestic votes and short term benefits from China, must not ignore lessons of history.

(Uma Purushothaman is Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Central University of Kerala.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.