Is a BJD-BJP ‘friendly contest’ on the cards?

The BJP is set to win a Rajya Sabha seat in Odisha, but the BJD’s support to its candidate may affect its electoral prospects in the forthcoming general elections.

Support by Odisha’s ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s nominee Union Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw in the ensuing Rajya Sabha polls throws light into the BJD’s political stance and has led to confusion within the ranks of the BJP in the state. 

The BJD’s support comes in the wake of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Odisha where he shared the stage with Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and described Patnaik as his ‘friend’. Patnaik reciprocated by praising Modi for setting a new direction for India on the economic front.

A well-calculated move

All the three Rajya Sabha seats going to the polls in Odisha on February 27 belonged to the BJD which has 110 legislators in the 147-member assembly. But the BJD announced the names of its two candidates and left the third seat vacant. The BJP, which could not have won a seat on its strength of 22 legislators, announced Vaishnaw as its nominee a day after the two BJD candidates filed their nomination papers.

In a well-calculated move, Patnaik declared support for Vaishnaw’s candidature ‘for the larger interest of state’s railways and telecom development’, immediately after the BJP announced the minister’s name as its candidate.

Bureaucrat-turned-politician Vaishnaw was first elected to the Rajya Sabha in 2019 with the BJD’s support in a bye-election held immediately after the general elections. Then, Patnaik had announced support to Vaishnaw following reported telephone calls from Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah seeking support for the former bureaucrat. This time, Patnaik has not said anything about any formal request from the BJP’s top leadership.

Severed ties to support

The BJD-BJP alliance was in power from 2000 to 2009. Patnaik severed ties before the 2009 general elections that were held in the aftermath of the anti-Christian violence in Kandhamal in 2008. Thereafter, the BJP has tried to strengthen its position and aggressively fought the 2019 elections to emerge as the main Opposition in Odisha. Both Modi and Shah attacked Patnaik in their public meetings in the run-up to the 2019 polls. While Shah termed the Patnaik government as a “burnt transformer” and urged people to oust it, Modi targeted the Chief Minister over the alleged violence against BJP workers.

The political equation changed soon after the 2019 polls when the BJD kept extending support to the Modi government in Parliament on numerous issues, including passage of key legislations, and supported Droupadi Murmu as presidential candidate in 2022.

A ‘friendly contest’?

The state BJP leadership, which seemed to be adopting a confrontationist approach towards the BJD, has announced that it will fight the 2024 general elections alone, and there is no bonhomie with the BJD. Despite putting up a brave face, many saffron party leaders in Odisha are unhappy as they fear that such understanding with the BJD will help the Congress emerge as the principal opposition in the state again despite it being in a moribund state for some time now.

Never in the past has there been an understanding between the ruling party and the main opposition in Odisha. Given this, the general elections could see the BJP and the BJD having a ‘friendly contest’ in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

The BJD has been in power in Odisha for the last 24 years under Patnaik’s leadership, and the BJP has emerged as the main opposition by replacing the Congress. As the Congress has been weakened over the years, leaders of both the BJD and the BJP don’t feel threatened by it any longer.

The Congress, which has been critical of the BJD-BJP friendship, has been trying to organise itself in the recent weeks with the visit of AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, which passed through two districts in Odisha. But it seems a bit too late to pose a strong challenge to either the BJD or the BJP, especially if there is a tacit understanding among the erstwhile allies.

Status quo  

In the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP may have an advantage in its strongholds in the western region, but it will not pose a serious challenge to the BJD in the assembly polls. This is primarily because the BJP does not have a popular face at the state level.

Patnaik still enjoys popular support and his party will strive to get him elected for the sixth consecutive term. The BJD government has also announced a series of welfare measures that has something for almost everyone in the state. Moreover, if there is an understanding between the BJD and the BJP, it will prevent disgruntled leaders from joining the saffron party in the run up to the general elections.

In the absence of a wave in favour of Modi and the general disaffection towards the BJD, the erstwhile Congress supporters could return to the party and that could lift the grand old party’s electoral fortunes. As both national parties struggle to occupy the position of the main opposition in Odisha, the BJD seems to be comfortably placed in a three-corner fight. 

Prafulla Das is a Bhubaneswar-based journalist.

(Disclaimer: The views mentioned above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views.)