Is Engineer Rashid’s bail BJP’s wild card in J&K?

Both National Conference (NC) leader Omar Abdullah and Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) chairperson Mehbooba Mufti have described the interim bail granted to jailed Baramulla MP Engineer Rashid as a deliberate move by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to weaken J&K’s mainstream parties.

Sheikh Abdul Rashid, better known as Engineer Rashid, is a maverick politician who unexpectedly defeated Abdullah and Peoples’ Conference chairman Sajjad Lone from the Baramulla constituency in the 2024 general elections.

Remarkably, he won the seat while still incarcerated in Delhi’s Tihar Central Jail, charged for terror funding under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA).

Rashid’s party, christened the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), was launched while he was in jail. He applied for interim bail to campaign for his party candidates and was given bail till the last day of polling for J&K assembly elections.

Abdullah quipped, "When (Arvind) Kejriwal was given bail by the court during Lok Sabha, look at the reaction of the BJP leaders who questioned the court order and even termed it undemocratic. But when Rashid was given bail, the BJP was the first to welcome it.” Mufti has described Rashid’s party as a “proxy” for the BJP supporting it “fully with funds”.

Will the sentiment that Rashid tapped into for his Lok Sabha victory help him in the coming assembly elections? Then his son had gone door-to-door urging voters that every vote cast for his father would save him from the gallows. That win has been seen by some as indicating public sentiment against mainstream political parties.

Buoyed by Rashid’s Lok Sabha victory, his brother, Khurshid Ahmad Sheikh, resigned from his job as a government school teacher. He is now the AIP candidate from Langate assembly constituency that has been held by Rashid for two consecutive terms between 2008 and 2019.

“Engineer Rashid’s wave is ten times bigger than what it was. The AIP is emerging as an alternative for people,” Khursheed claimed. Nevertheless, most of those who have joined the AIP have had nothing to do with Rashid in the past. Perhaps they only hope to encash the ‘wave’.

The announcement of 34 AIP candidates for the first two phases of the election, has prompted Mufti to wonder who could be funding the party’s election campaign, while the PDP doesn’t have the financial resources to field candidates everywhere.

If Rashid is being facilitated by powerful political forces, they would do well to remember that he is an unguided missile that can singe those promoting him. Kashmiris on social media are highly sceptical of Rashid’s ability to replicate his Lok Sabha victory in the assembly elections.

Unsure of getting a majority on its own, the BJP is perhaps trying to use smaller parties and independents to enable it to head a coalition government in the union territory. They include the AIP, Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party, the Peoples’ Conference, and independents.

Given the BJP’s disarray in its traditional political base of Hindu-dominated Jammu region, its ability to get support from the Kashmir valley is more important than ever. However, it is unlikely to make up potential losses in Jammu with any gains in the Valley, from its candidates or its ‘proxies’. What then is its objective of propping up Rashid and other ‘proxies’?

A clue may be found in the facilitation of the jailed UAPA-accused separatist cleric Sarjan Barkati to file his candidature against Abdullah from Ganderbal. Abdullah has now filed his nomination from a second constituency, Budgam, to play safe.

Even if some former Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) members, who had boycotted elections earlier, were to score victories, they are unlikely to support a BJP-led coalition. Even Rashid’s party may not find it easy to do so. However, as ‘spoilers’ they can weaken the NC and the Congress in the Valley. Former members of the JeI who are contesting, are more likely to cut into the votes of the NC-Congress combine.

The BJP is apprehensive of the NC-Congress alliance getting a majority in the elections and would like to prevent that at any cost. This was evident in the pointed attack of Union Home Minister Amit Shah in his rally in Jammu claiming, “NC and Congress want to release stone pelters. They want terrorism to flourish in Rajouri and Poonch”.

The facts are contrary to Shah’s claims. While earlier militant attacks were largely limited to the Poonch and Rajouri districts of Jammu, this year under the Union government’s rule, they spread to newer Jammu districts such as Doda, Kathua, and Reasi. The J&K administration has not been able to curb terrorist violence or their infiltration from Pakistan. So, it is not as if a hard-won peace is threatened by the NC-Congress combine.

The BJP’s fear may be that an electoral victory for the alliance will be seen as an unequivocal rejection of its Kashmir policy, and the narrative it has built around it.

Should the alliance come to power, the pressure on the Narendra Modi government to restore the statehood of J&K will increase. Abdullah has already declared that “in its first order of business after elections, will pass a resolution against the Centre’s decision to strip the region of its statehood and special status.”

The Centre, despite claiming that it will restore statehood as it was a ‘solemn promise’, seems unwilling to let go of administrative control any time soon. In early July, it transferred powers to the Lieutenant Governor that should legitimately belong to an elected government. The elected government will now not even be able to deploy civil servants according to its needs.

Moreover, if an elected NC-Congress government indeed comes to fruition, it may demand that the Union government start a dialogue with Pakistan — something that New Delhi is not yet ready for.

In all likelihood, the BJP’s electoral strategy in Kashmir is no more than a ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ approach. Engineer Rashid, the separatists, and independents in the fray may be playing a supporting role either voluntarily or under pressure.

Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH).