Islands in an ocean of suffering

State, Market, Society

Nearly every country is racing to respond to the coronavirus, looking desperately for things that seem to work somewhere, hoping that they can quickly adopt lessons from such places. That will save lives. But it can only do the job partially, because the strongest defences a country can build cannot be put together in weeks, but takes decades to develop.

Ironically, despite the origin of the virus in China, it is from countries closest to it that we seem to have the most to learn. Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore -- these places are doing something that is working very differently from elsewhere. They’ve had only modest shutdowns so far (Singapore’s situation is changing) compared to the large brakes applied by others. And yet, they have kept the number of coronavirus infections low.

Japan is more populous than any European country, has numerous proximate links to China, and the world’s oldest population -- all stiff odds against the virus. And for Taiwan, its management of the virus is a real feather in its cap. While mainland China used the full force of its police state to contain the disease after the initial outbreak, Taiwan has shown it can do as well or better without that force.

Why have these places succeeded where so many others have not? To my mind, they have a balance of state, market and society that is helping at this crucial moment. An educated and informed society, a legitimate, competent and trusted government, and industry that can perform at world-leading standards -- this is the combo that is holding the fort.

Japan has an abundance of it. The education system is among the best in the world. There is a widespread and vociferous media. Its government departments are chosen by free and fair elections. They hire specialists rather than generalists, and promotions in the public sector are within fields of expertise, unlike the general administration of our IAS. Successive governments have delivered a very high quality of life.

Add to this, certain habits and practices of the Japanese that naturally protect them from infections. They greet each other without much contact (although this is changing among the younger generation), their public places are more sanitised than anywhere else in the world, and washing hands and using wipes are common habits. These things provide a natural defence against all contagions.

The state and society are complemented powerfully by a globally competitive industry. Tokyo is far and different from every other major city and yet a world leader in many fields. Even in this pandemic, one of the first options on the table to contain the virus is from a drug produced by a Japanese conglomerate.

Taiwan is a little behind in building this three-pronged strength. Its victories in society and governance are more recent than Japan’s, but in some ways, they are more robust, given the sharp contrast with China across the sea. And like Japan, it too has tremendous capacity to manufacture the right meds as and when they are found.

Hong Kong is a bit like Taiwan; its tenuous separate-ness from the mainland gives it the room it needs to not get caught up in the harm that China is enduring. Singapore’s government has been as competent as those in Tokyo and Taipei. Plus, it is acutely conscious that it is sustained by trade, and must do its utmost to protect that.

But why are America and Europe faring so differently? They too have a fair amount of the balance between state, market and society. They too have legitimate and competent governments, a free society and press, and a range of innovations in industry. By all accounts, they should have been able to do what Japan did. Why didn’t they?

In the US, part of the answer is Trump; he has eroded the balance of power along many axes, privileging the market against both society and the state. In response to the pandemic, he has reposed faith in swift and magically innovative solutions from industry, while the virus has raged.

The Europeans were caught late-footed in responding, and are paying a huge price. One can only hope that their public health systems will withstand the tremendous pressures they face. The northern nations have shown more resilience, perhaps because their state capacities are greater than those of Italy and Spain, whose governments still seem like patchworks from post-war choices made decades ago.

No explanation of the differences between countries may be complete in itself, and there are nuances in each case. That said, it is a time to observe and learn from the range of efforts. Japan, Taiwan and a few other places -- islands in an ocean of suffering -- provide a part of the answer. We must pay heed.