It’s the inscrutable voter, stupid!

It was a poignant image on live television on India Today TV. The chief pollster of MyAxis India, Pradeep Gupta, was in tears as his ‘Exit Poll’ was taken to the cleaners by the ‘Exact Poll’ on counting day on June 4. This will be etched for long in one’s mind, along with the weird perception of the victor seeming the vanquished and vanquished seeming the victor in this election. 

The mood of the nation and opinion polls and surveys prior to elections had uniformly suggested that the 2024 general election was a ‘done deal’. Even before the schedule for the elections was announced, the common voter was told who he/she would be voting for. In effect, the discretion of the voter to decide was cast aside as irrelevant. 

The print, electronic and social media were consumed this potion. Every single move or campaign mode by every other party was read into this template and explained as conforming to the expectation. Innocuous or alien turn of events were interpreted on the confirmation bias built into the system.  

Democracy, in its various forms, has been lauded as a system that empowers the people. Yet, amidst the grand pronouncements of political parties, the thundering speeches of leaders, and the complex machinations of the political machinery, it's easy to lose sight of the central figure in this grand drama: the individual voter. S/he is the unsung hero of our democracy.

The cornerstone of any electoral democracy is not the charismatic leader, nor the party platform, but the seemingly insignificant act of a single person entering the polling booth and making a choice. This choice, symbolised by the finger marking a ballot by pressing a button on the electronic voting machine, is the foundation upon which the legitimacy and efficacy of democratic governance rests.

The power of the individual voter lies in their agency. Unlike the subjects of a monarchy or the dictated will of a totalitarian regime, the citizens in a democracy has the authority to shape their government. This act of choosing, however mundane it may seem, is an act of empowerment. It allows the electorate to hold their representatives accountable and ensure that the leadership reflects the will of the people.

This power is not merely theoretical. History is replete with examples of elections where seemingly insignificant margins determined the course of a nation. A single vote can swing the outcome, a fact that underscores the immense responsibility shouldered by each voter.

The secrecy of the ballot further amplifies the significance of the individual choice. Unfettered by external pressures, the voter casts their ballot based on their own convictions, free from coercion or intimidation. This secrecy ensures that the vote is a true reflection of the voter's will, and not a product of outside influence.

Of course, the act of voting is just one piece of the democratic puzzle. An informed citizenry is essential for exercising this power effectively. Voters have a responsibility to educate themselves on the issues, the candidates, and the policies at stake. Apathy and ignorance of these can render the power of the vote meaningless.

However, the onus doesn't solely lie on the individual. Democracies have an obligation to foster an environment that facilitates informed participation. This includes ensuring access to unbiased information, protecting freedom of speech, and upholding the integrity of the electoral process.

The individual voter is the key figure in a democracy and their seemingly insignificant act of choosing their representatives is the bedrock upon which democratic legitimacy and efficacy are built. It is a power that must be exercised with responsibility and nurtured by a system that empowers informed participation. Only then can the promise of democracy -- government of the people, by the people, for the people -- be truly realised.

Electoral democracies, in theory, offer a powerful tool – the vote – for citizens to shape their government. However, the pathway between casting a ballot and achieving desired outcomes is often fraught with a critical tension: the difference between perception and reality. We need to be aware of citizens' understanding of how elections function can diverge from the actual dynamics and consequences of the process.

One key area of divergence lies in the perception of choice. For instance, voters may believe they are presented with a clear spectrum of political ideologies, when in reality party platforms may converge on the political centre to appeal to a broader base.

The media also plays a significant role. The selective presentation of information, or the use of emotionally charged rhetoric, can distort voters' understanding of candidates' positions and the potential impact of their policies. 

The consequences of this perception-reality gap can be detrimental to democracies. It can breed cynicism and apathy among voters who feel their participation is of little consequence. It can also lead to the election of candidates who do not truly represent the will of the people, as voters may be swayed by misleading information or superficial campaigning. The gap between perception and reality in electoral democracies poses a significant challenge.

The intellectual giants Malcolm Gladwell and Yuval Noah Harari converge on the psychology of the voter’s choice. They agree that it is based on ‘feelings and emotions’ and rarely do ‘policies and principles’ sway it. Which is why, the common voter will always remain inscrutable. 

One thing is clear, though. The pollsters and pundits got it all wrong, or perhaps gave it out all wrong. What a fall for them! 

(The writer is a practicing advocate in the Madras High Court) 

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