Lakhimpur: A threat to both BJP and farmers' leaders

If current farm leadership is unable to handle farmers' anger, especially the youth, it would be difficult to predict the future course of the movement

The Lakhimpur-Kheri incident, in which four protesting farmers were deliberately run over by an SUV, has shaken India to the bone. It is snow-balling into an adverse event for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) governments in Uttar Pradesh and the Centre. Its fallout could also destabilise the current leadership of the farmers' movement.

The BJP leadership is hopeful that the problem will go away by throwing money at the victims. But why has it failed to act against the culprits in what prima facie seems to be cold-blooded murder? Ordinarily, a junior minister like Ajay Misra, father of the alleged accused, would be sacrificed to protect the party's electoral prospects. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not yet sacked Misra from his Council of Ministers, nor has the UP police arrested Misra's son.

The main culprit is alleged to be Ashish Misra, son of Union Minister of State for Home Ajay Misra. The minister is himself a one-time history-sheeter known as "Teni Maharaj" in his pocket borough of Lakhimpur-Kheri. He was accused in a murder case but discharged for lack of evidence 15 years ago. He then joined politics, rising from district panchayat to Parliament.

Recently, Ajay Misra flaunted his antecedents in a public speech available on video. He asked the agitating farmers to check out his career before becoming an elected politician and boasted that he could have them evicted "in two minutes". The thuggish bluster does him no credit as the junior home minister in the Modi government, where his primary charge is law and order in the country.

Read | Lakhimpur violence: Supreme Court asks Uttar Pradesh government to file status report by tomorrow

Misra, a Brahmin by caste, is believed to be Prime Minister Modi's man rather than a UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath loyalist. His induction into the Council of Ministers in July was seen as a pre-poll gamble to send a positive signal to the Brahmin voters of UP. This was a counterweight to the general perception among Brahmins of the state that UP CM Adityanath, a Thakur (Rajput), favours his caste. Brahmins are an important ideological and numerical constituency making up 10 to 12 per cent of the state's population and in some constituencies accounting for more than 20 per cent of the vote share.

The perception of the current chief minister being anti-Brahmin has grown stronger following the custodial death of gangster Vikas Dubey (a Brahmin). It is a commentary on the state's politics that UP Brahmins, who once gave the nation inspirational leaders, like Mangal Pandey, Chandra Shekhar Azad, Ram Prasad Bismil, Swami Sahajanand Saraswati, Jawaharlal Nehru, Govind Ballabh Pant, Mahavir Tyagi and Kamalapati Tripathi, among others, today look to toughs and musclemen as their icons.

Consideration of the Brahmin vote might be one reason for the delay in dropping Ajay Misra from the Council of Ministers. Adityanath, too, has his hands tied as action against Misra could be seen as a comment on the prime minister's decision to induct Ajay Misra into his Cabinet. Dismissal would also confirm that the minister was threatening farmers with violence. This is a dangerous acknowledgement that would definitely affect other BJP ruled states like Haryana. The incumbent chief minister in Haryana, Manohar Lal Khattar, like Misra, has been publicly coaxing people into violent confrontations with the protesting farmers. It could also have a negative effect on the BJP's electoral prospects in Uttarakhand, adjoining Lakhimpur-Kheri, which is shortly going to the polls.

Perhaps the biggest impact of the Lakhimpur-Kheri incidents will be on the future of Rakesh Tikait, a farmers' leader from Western UP. Once leading from the front against the government, he has morphed into a negotiator on its behalf with the families of the farmers killed. It is unclear whether he had the mandate of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha, the collective leadership of the farmers' movement. He may have acted in good faith, but his critics could see it as further evidence of his dubious political loyalties.

Get live updates on UP violence on DH

If the current farmers' leadership is unable to handle the anger simmering among the farmers, especially its youth, it would be difficult to predict the future course of the movement. Unless a new leadership emerges, the situation could become anarchic. If a leadership crisis develops, then the prospect of the confrontation between the government and the farmers being tested in the streets could be real.

As of now, the BJP governments in the states where it faces the farmers' agitation are wary. In Haryana, after a mere warning by the farmers' leaders, the government has rescinded its decision to delay paddy procurement. In UP, the bucketfuls of cash compensation to victims of the Lakhimpur-Kheri incident show a chief minister trying to avoid confrontation.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court (SC) may influence the course of the farmers' agitation. It is hearing a plea on whether the right to protest is a fundamental right based on a petition by a farmers' organisation based in Rajasthan. The court has questioned the farmers' blocking of highways. An adverse order by the SC could put pressure on the ongoing agitation to disband and disperse. It is important to note that so far, the SKM, representing the collective leadership of the farmers' movement, has not gone before the Supreme Court.

In an unprecedented move, the apex court has also taken notice of the Lakhimpur-Kheri incident even before investigations are complete. Even if the SC issues notice to the UP government and asks it tough questions, there is a likelihood that the issue could get diverted into a long-drawn legal process, which may suit the government.

These straws in the wind suggest that a confrontation of the government with the farmers could be triggered either by legal pronouncements or provoked by unpredictable incidents such as the one at Lakhimpur-Kheri.

(The writer is a journalist based in Delhi)