Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Poll results a setback to BJP, image of Narendra Modi
Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it all about himself, we can say that he personally lost the 2024 general elections. When writing this article, it seems unlikely that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would get a simple majority on its own; it is leading in 244 seats, which is a far cry from the halfway mark of 272 seats.
Since the BJP campaign was all about Modi, and the prime minister suggested he could be blessed with divine energy, he must now come down to earth and take responsibility for the poor performance of the BJP. His deliberate attempt to drag Muslims into the flagging campaign by raising divisive issues also did not work with the people of India.
More significantly, we must assume that for all the hype around the prime minister, the image of being pro-rich also helped create an upsurge of support for parties whose leaderships have been pushed to the wall with frozen bank accounts, enforcement directorate cases, and more. The people of India fought for the parties that were being trampled on. They fought for their constitutional rights, and it’s entirely possible that the 400-seat slogan raised concerns of one individual getting too much power.
The sucker punch came from Uttar Pradesh where in the late afternoon of June 4, the BJP was trailing behind the Samajwadi Party-Congress front, and even so from Faizabad, where the Ayodhya Ram temple is located. The reverses in this state are the main speed-breaker in the path to authoritarianism and majoritarianism that the nation was being taken on in the decade under Modi.
It is, of course, possible that Modi may yet seek to be prime minister again as the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could be a nose ahead of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc and President Draupadi Murmu may invite the sitting prime minister to form a government. But without the BJP having a majority of its own, it’s not clear for how long allies such as the politically oscillating chief minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar of the JD(U) would stay.
Or can Modi now have the strings pulled by Telugu Desam Party (TDP)’s Chandrababu Naidu who has performed well in Andhra Pradesh? It may be useful to recall that the TDP gave outside support, but refused to join the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, the first coalition government (1999 to 2004) at the Centre to complete its term. The political convictions of parties such as the TDP and the JD(U) are limited to their survival and protecting their vote blocs' interests.
It must also be noted that some parties that stood firmly against Modi have done well, from Congress to the Trinamool Congress to the SP, while parties that never took a position on the BJP, such as Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Andhra Pradesh’ YSRCP led by Jagan Mohan Reddy have performed very poorly and lost out to the BJP. There’s a lesson in that. They frequently collaborated with the Modi regime, and in the process increased the national party’s acceptability. Equally, the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) too has landed nowhere and continues to diminish even as it refuses to openly fight for or against the BJP.
Modi is a figure who seeks to diminish regional parties; a reason why the undivided Shiv Sena would leave the NDA. The BJP could still form the government despite not having a simple majority — for this, the BJP (and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) must choose a leader who is more acceptable to allies than Modi. Failing that, the Opposition’s I.N.D.I.A. bloc can also stake a claim and make overtures to BJP’s NDA allies.
(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author).
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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