Netanyahu’s ambition may push West Asia to a devastating war

Thousands of protestors took to the streets in Washington, London, Berlin, Jakarta, Manila, and other capital cities over the weekend chanting pro-Palestine slogans to mark the first anniversary of the deadly Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which killed about 1,189 people and 250 people taken as hostages.

The major objective of the attack, tacitly supported by Iran, was to scuttle the new political architecture promoted by the United States (through the Abraham Accords between Israel and a number of West Asian countries) which had established peace, security, and economic co-operation among them. Iran’s grouse was that these accords bypassed Tehran and left the Palestinian issue unresolved.

Israel’s war against Hamas has killed nearly 42,000 Palestinians including some of the top leaders of Hamas, destroyed the Gaza enclave displacing nearly 2.3 million Palestinians and creating a humanitarian crisis. After Gaza, Israel turned its attention against the Hezbollah in Lebanon killing almost 250 top Hezbollah leaders and destroying a large part of southern Lebanon to ensure security for its settlers in northern Israel.

Most targeted operations in Lebanon were carried out by the American special teams with symbolic participation of the Israelis. Iran responded by shooting about 200 missiles at Israel on October 1 out of which about two dozen made it through the Israeli defences damaging about 30 American F-35 aircraft. Iran which has been trying to avoid a direct war with Israel (due to the latter’s support by the US) declared that it would not launch any more attacks if there were no further response by Israel. Iran’s non-cleric President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is a former cardiac surgeon, was particularly keen to improve ties with the US and its allies, and had taken a flexible approach to stave off a conflict and keep communications open.

According to media reports, Israel’s success against Hamas and Hezbollah has augmented the popularity of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and he is expected to easily win an election now against his much lower rating earlier. Enraged at the Iranian missile attack, Netanyahu has now set his eyes on giving a crushing blow to Iran destroying its oil wells, nuclear plant, military and industrial infrastructure. US President Joe Biden has been urging a proportional response to Netanyahu but is helpless in moderating his behaviour due to domestic pressure. Biden has despatched about 18 warships including two carrier groups to West Asia to assist Israel in meeting its war objectives.

Biden and Netanyahu tried to persuade Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to pressure Iran to co-operate with them, but Putin did not receive their phone calls. Russia has come out openly in support of Iran by sending its S-400 anti-aircraft and missile defence system (to protect Iran’s nuclear installations), Iskander missiles which can be used to carry nuclear warheads, and talks are on to provide Sukhoi 35 advanced fighter aircraft. Iran has stated that its military response would depend upon the Israel-US response, and has readied about 2,000 missiles for hitting the Israeli and American military bases in West Asia, military infrastructure, and oil wells of US allies (Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and others).

Iran’s nuclear installations are located deep underground at Natanz and dug into mountains at Fordow. As per experts, these would require massive GBU-57A/B ordnance penetrator bombs weighing about 30,000 pounds to go 60 meters deep. Israel does not have such bombs or the long-range bombers such as B-2 to drop these bombs; this would only be possible with the US intervention.

Iran is believed to have carried out a nuclear test recently and a hit at the nuclear plant could lead to a radiation leak. Iran has also vowed to hit Israeli nuclear facilities and has readied numerous missiles for this purpose. If the Iranian oil wells are bombed, Tehran has promised to close the Strait of Hormuz and shut off the despatch of oil. It is doubtful if the US military would be able to save Israel, pro-US allies, and the US military bases particularly when Russia has decided to assist Iran.

The Iran-Israel war can result in colossal damage to both these and other countries in West Asia, major dislocation and shortages in the supply of oil, gas, and other commodities, a sharp increase in their prices, vast environmental damage, massive hit to the economies (including India’s), currency depreciation, and decline in economic growth.

Israel is a small country with little capacity to absorb vast damage. Iran may suffer a temporary setback in the worst-case scenario. Iran would still be able to build a nuclear bomb since it has the know-how to do so. Also, the Iran-Israel rivalry would worsen with deeper bitterness and hardening of sentiments. Despite going in flames, no country in West Asia including Israel would achieve peace, stability, or security. This war, like most others, would not resolve any existing conflicts.

(Yogesh Gupta is a Former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, New Delhi. X: @AmbYogeshGupta)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.