Now more than ever, India must lead to organise a new regional order

According to reports from Sri Lanka, street protests have increased and may turn violent if not brought under control

India’s immediate neighbourhood, in whichever direction you look, is in turmoil. The economic crisis in Sri Lanka is threatening to turn into a political crisis; the political crisis in Pakistan is all set to draw that country into an even deeper economic morass than it is already in. Nepal is struggling with political and economic issues, and Bangladesh and Bhutan are struggling to press the economic restart button after being battered by the pandemic. New Delhi’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy is probably facing its first test at a time when the Russia-Ukraine conflict has revived the spectre of a new Cold War.

According to reports from Colombo and other parts of Sri Lanka, street protests have increased and may turn violent if not brought under control. The Rajapaksa government, which came to power after gaining a decisive mandate, had every advantage to revive the economy and put the Island-nation back on the road to economic recovery post-Easter 2019 bombings and the crippling pandemic. But the ‘family-owned’ political dispensation in Colombo seems to have done everything that was avoidable and invited disaster of every form. The massive infrastructure projects funded by China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may have turned out to be the tightest noose around its neck. As a country that depends heavily on imports for energy, food grains, provisions and medicines, Sri Lanka should have stressed on growth by going ‘vocal for local’ and should have sought to give a boost to tourism, trade and local manufacturing instead of a growth strategy based on heavy foreign borrowing and spending on infrastructure projects that would only help China. The high levels of corruption and profligacy were bound to hurt the economy.

Also Read: Sri Lanka: A welfare state in cinders

India has rushed to the aid of Sri Lanka, but the recovery will take time and some drastic decisions on the part of Colombo. While street protests, presumably supported by opposition parties, will not help resolve the crisis, Colombo will have to swallow its pride and form a team of experts as also convince Opposition leaders to join the efforts to find solutions. A joint appeal by the ruling party and the combined Opposition may assuage the feelings of the people even if it does not alleviate their economic woes immediately.

Perpetuating dynastic politics may give immediate political benefits and opportunities to aggrandise the ruling family, but in the long run, the country suffers, and even the family will go into oblivion. Sri Lanka’s political history as well as that of the Congress party in India stand testimony to this.

India will continue to maintain its stand of non-interference in the internal affairs of Colombo. Yet, the political, economic and security fall-out of the present crisis, largely blamed on the ruling family, cannot be overlooked by New Delhi. Sri Lanka has sought Delhi’s help many times before -- during natural calamities, civil strife and security challenges. While India has responded positively each time, the dispensations in Colombo have overlooked its assistance and conducted their business as usual, at times in a manner detrimental to India’s security and national interests.

On India’s western front, Imran Khan, recently ousted from the office of prime minister, is licking his wounds. He has reportedly called for protests against the installation of a ‘corrupt’ government that has come into existence under Shehbaz Sharif, ostensibly at the behest of the US as a punishment for Imran’s visit to Moscow just hours before Russia mounted an attack on Ukraine. The military establishment in Pakistan is powerful and will not allow the political establishment to overshadow its importance. Moreover, the army, forever in need of largesse from external sources, will be ever ready to weaken Islamabad for a price. It is possible that the US needs the support of Islamabad to tackle the fall-out of its hasty exit from Afghanistan, while Beijing needs the army to quell the Baluchi opposition to the CPEC projects in and around Gwadar. The political turmoil in Islamabad is likely to spill over to India, resulting in increased border intrusions and terror attacks. New Delhi will have to be prepared to impose a heavy cost on the perpetrators of terror from across the border.

New Delhi will also have to keep a close watch on the possible revival of Maoist groups in Nepal, Pakistani ISI-sponsored radical Islamic outfits in Bangladesh, and sleeper cells of the remnants of the LTTE in Sri Lanka, even as it rushes to support the respective governments to survive economic and political upheavals.

These are trying times for India’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy. The advantages and disadvantages of a weak or strong neighbourhood depend mainly on the strength and capabilities of the country concerned. In the case of India, which was concerned with solving the day-to-day problems of its citizens for a good part of the years after the “tryst with destiny” and the tragic Partition, the neighbourhood has always been less of an opportunity and more of a challenge. South Asia, or the Indian subcontinent, a seamlessly interconnected geography with diverse forms of dispensations, economic status, socio-cultural existence and religious affiliations, has all the attributes to emulate the European Union template. What is woefully lacking, though, is the determination and leadership. Since the beginning of this millennium, and especially after 2014 when a government with majority and strong leadership has come to power, India’s leadership prowess for the region has become more evidently pronounced.

Sooner rather than later, New Delhi will have to forge a new regional trade architecture or revive and strengthen the existing ones such as BIMSTEC and take a lead in correcting the trade and economic imbalance, regain strategic ground and play the lead role in organising the regional and larger Asian unity and security.

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