Palakkad Bypoll | Sandeep Varier factor and its impact on BJP-leaning voters

With unprecedented developments unfolding daily, the political climate in Palakkad has intensified well ahead of the November 20 bypoll. After capitalising on the controversy sparked by a blue trolley bag in Palakkad, the Congress made a surprising strategic move, transforming a key political rival into one of their own. Sandeep Varier, widely regarded as one of the most articulate spokespersons of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has crossed over to the Congress, and in a dramatic announcement, declared his allegiance to Rahul Gandhi, vowing to serve as a dedicated warrior for the party.

Varier has been vocal about his dissatisfaction within the BJP, attributing it primarily to unsettling personal experiences. At one point, Varier was stripped of his role as a spokesperson — a position that was never reinstated. While BJP state president K Surendran declined to disclose the rationale behind this decision, it did not prevent Varier from being inducted into the party’s state committee or making occasional appearances in television debates.

While the BJP dismisses Varier as ‘inconsequential’, the Congress sees things differently. The party formally welcomed him at an official press conference attended by its state leadership, underscoring the significance it places on his defection ahead of the bypoll. It is evident that the Congress hopes to sway a section of BJP-leaning voters through Varier’s switch.

However, the extent of its impact on BJP supporters will depend on several factors yet to unfold.

Credibility under scrutiny

In a single move, Varier disavowed all his past statements that once made him a hero among BJP cadre, attributing them entirely to the party, and claiming they were never his personal views. This raises a pertinent question for BJP-leaning voters in Palakkad: whose views is he expressing now — his own or those of his new party? If it’s the former, the Congress must signal its acceptance of his personal opinions. If it’s the latter, his credibility among voters may come into question, leaving his trustworthiness in doubt.

Risk of taking on Narendra Modi

Until his switch to the Congress, Varier had voiced only personal grievances. However, he was quick to criticise Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), accusing Modi of promoting divisive and communal agendas. The reality is that Modi remains far more popular than any BJP leader in Kerala, and such a hasty critique may not sit well with BJP-leaning voters, potentially alienating them further.

Unjust shift in convictions

Varier will also face the inevitable question of whether his ideals were genuinely his own or shaped by others. If he truly held a strong foundational belief in the Sangh parivar ideology, how could those convictions shift so drastically simply due to unfavourable treatment from a few party leaders?

Poor approach in handling concerns

There is a strong possibility that a significant section of BJP voters in Palakkad may still sympathise with Varier, owing to the poor treatment he reportedly received from the party’s state leadership. Varier had expressed his dissatisfaction, particularly after being denied a seat at a party meeting — a slight that deeply upset him. Despite voicing his concerns, the party appeared to dismiss them, hinting at possible animosity toward him within its ranks. Interestingly, it was only after Varier’s grievances became public that the party sent delegates to resolve the issue.

A missed opportunity for empathy

Varier’s grievance that seniors in the state and district leadership — particularly BJP’s Palakkad candidate C Krishnakumar — failed to console him after his mother’s passing, could strike an emotional chord with voters. Their absence and apparent indifference during such a personal loss reflect the treatment he endured within the party.

The leadership should have demonstrated empathy, addressing his concerns promptly, and taken proactive steps to mitigate the fallout, especially with the bypoll approaching. This incident underscores either the leadership’s ineptitude, or their lack of care for Varier, or both — which could work against the BJP in the eyes of voters.

From asset to afterthought

The gravest mistake the BJP made with Varier was to dismiss him as irrelevant and inconsequential. Surendran further deepened the wound by trivialising Varier’s grievances, calling them a "non-issue", and questioning how long the media would continue giving him attention.

Adding to the insult, BJP’s national leader and Kerala in-charge Prakash Javadekar went a step further, labelling Varier as not a prominent leader. Several other state leaders echoed similar sentiments, calling him petty — an attitude that starkly highlights how the party treats someone who had consistently excelled at articulating its policies and positions.

BJP-leaning voters in Palakkad will consider two key factors: the injustice Varier faced from the BJP and the perceived betrayal of the party by Varier. Ultimately, their decision will favour the side that carries greater weight in their judgement.

(Sreejith Panickar is a political commentator. X: @PanickarS.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.